Holiday Retail Sales Expected to See Modest Growth Amid Economic Concerns

Despite economic uncertainties and the ongoing election year, retail sales during the 2024 holiday season are projected to increase by up to 3.5% compared to last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

This growth, while slightly slower than the 3.9% increase seen in 2023, would bring total holiday sales to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. The expected rise mirrors more typical pre-pandemic trends and reflects a normalization in consumer spending patterns.

Retail executives acknowledge several challenges this year, including inflation, a divisive presidential election, and economic volatility. However, they remain optimistic that strong wage growth and resilient consumer spending will drive sales.

“The economy looks much more like a pre-pandemic economy in terms of spending patterns and growth,” said Matthew Shay, NRF’s CEO.

The NRF also forecasts significant growth in e-commerce, with online sales expected to rise by 8-9%, reaching nearly $298 billion. This shift is attributed to increasing consumer preference for online shopping, especially with promotions such as buy now, pay later services, which are projected to contribute $18.5 billion in online sales.

While consumers remain cautious, focusing on essentials like groceries, retailers are heavily promoting discounts and value-based shopping to attract buyers. Companies like Walmart and Target have introduced widespread price cuts, and Kohl’s has launched a new marketing campaign, “When Life Gets Real, Start Here,” aiming to position shopping as a reprieve from election-year stress.

The New York Times and FOX Business contributed to this report.