The Israel-Palestine War Continues. US Broader Regional Interest.

The Israel-Palestine conflict has entered a new phase of escalation following the collapse of a recent ceasefire.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced intensified military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after accusing the group of violating the truce. Israeli airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties, with reports indicating over 400 Palestinians killed, many of whom were women and children.

In response, Hamas stated that it remains open to negotiations with Israel, emphasizing that it has not closed the door to dialogue despite the ongoing hostilities. The group has accepted proposals from US mediators and is in contact with Qatar, Egypt, and the United States to halt Israeli aggression, facilitate humanitarian aid, and progress towards implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.

The collapse of the ceasefire has led to political shifts within the Israeli government. Ultra-nationalist ministers who had resigned in protest of the truce have rejoined Netanyahu’s administration, reinforcing a more aggressive stance towards Gaza. This political realignment has sparked protests in Jerusalem, particularly among families of hostages concerned about the safety of their loved ones amid renewed military actions.

International reactions have varied. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for an end to hostilities, while Malaysia has agreed to accept 15 exiled Palestinians. The United Nations has accused Israel of targeting its compound in Gaza after a staff member was killed and others injured, a claim Israel denies.

Human rights organizations continue to express concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Amnesty International reported that Israeli military operations have resulted in significant Palestinian casualties and displacement, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region.

To gain a better understanding of the situation Wyoming Star contacted Gregory Aftandilian, a consultant, scholar, and lecturer, an adjunct faculty member at Boston University and American University. He is also an associate of the Middle East Center at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell and a Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for National Policy in Washington, DC.

Wyoming Star: The ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and Israel has resumed its military operations in Gaza. How do you assess the current situation, and do you see a realistic path to de-escalation?

Prof. Aftandilian: The resumption of hostilities has set back the ceasefire negotiations to be sure. Today’s news reports indicate that approximately 400 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, and that means that Hamas is almost certainly going to respond militarily.

The only thing that will stop this violence is pressure from the Trump administration, but President Trump has been reluctant to apply such pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Wyoming Star: What role has the US played in the ceasefire negotiations, and has it been effective in influencing both Israel and Hamas?

Prof. Aftandilian: The Biden administration and the incoming Trump team worked closely together in the last weeks of the former to reach the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Although Egypt and Qatar have also played a mediatory role between Israel and Hamas, especially with the latter, only the United States has the clout to influence Israel. The US has done so in the past, but it is unclear if Trump will lean on Netanyahu now to do so.

Wyoming Star: President Trump has taken a hardline stance on regional conflicts, including supporting Israel’s military actions and threatening Iran. How do these policies represent broader US strategic interests in the Middle East?

Prof. Aftandilian: Trump’s policies are contradictory. On the one hand, he wants the violence in the region to abate and does not want the US to get involved in a Middle East war. On the other hand, he has used threatening language against Iran and has struck Houthi targets in Yemen.

Wyoming Star: The US has been conducting strikes against the Houthis in Yemen while also trying to contain Iranian influence. How does this balancing act affect its credibility as a mediator in the Israel-Palestine conflict?

Prof. Aftandilian: The US strikes against the Houthis are largely because of their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. It is somewhat related to the Israel-Hamas war because the Houthis have occasionally launched rockets into Israel and are claiming they are doing so against Israel.

The US strikes on the Houthis are unlikely to affect the US role as mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict because Hamas is not influenced by the Houthis, though it probably appreciates the Houthis’ anti-Israeli stances and policies.

Wyoming Star: With increasing global attention on human rights concerns in Gaza, is the US at risk of losing credibility among its Arab allies?

Prof. Aftandilian: If the US does not weigh in with Netanyahu to stop the recent Israeli strikes in Gaza, the US standing in the region, already low, will deteriorate further.

Wyoming Star: How do you assess the Biden administration’s Middle East policies compared to Trump’s approach?

Prof. Aftandilian: Biden was strongly supportive of Israel but said at times that the Israeli response to the Hamas attacks was “over the top,” and he held up 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, though he gave that state nearly all that it asked for militarily. Trump, by contrast, has restored the delivery of such bombs and has not criticized Israel’s military strikes.

Wyoming Star: How do you see regional actors like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia positioning themselves amid the ongoing conflict?

Prof. Aftandilian: As long as large numbers of Palestinians are being killed in Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will be critical of Israeli policies. That will, in turn, make any outreach to the Israelis all the more difficult. If these Israeli strikes end, these countries can be somewhat influential in urging Hamas to remain engaged in ceasefire talks.

Wyoming Star: Iran has been a key backer of Hamas and Hezbollah. With rising tensions, do you see a possibility of a broader regional war involving Iran and its proxies?

Prof. Aftandilian: Iran does not want to get involved in a regional war in the Middle East, believing that if it did so, it would have to face Israel and possibly the United States in a military confrontation, from which it would surely lose despite its rhetoric suggesting otherwise.

Wyoming Star: What are the implications of the conflict on Israel’s relations with the Gulf states, especially in light of the Abraham Accords?

Prof. Aftandilian: The ongoing conflict means that there will be no forward movement on the Abraham Accords.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it will not join them unless there is a clear pathway toward a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is right now unrealistic.

Wyoming Star: Some experts argue that the two-state solution is no longer viable. Do you share this view? If so, what alternative solutions exist?

Prof. Aftandilian: The two-state solution is only viable if the Israeli polity shifts leftward and agrees to give up the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority is reformed, but we are a long way from that happening. A true one-state solution is not going to work either because the Israelis are not going to allow Palestinians to have equal voting power.

Wyoming Star: The detention of pro-Palestinian activists in the US, such as Mahmoud Khalil, has sparked controversy. Can such a radical response to the criticisms of a foreign country influence public opinion on the conflict?

Prof. Aftandilian: The detention of pro-Palestinian activists in the US is more of a domestic issue in the US rather than a foreign policy issue and thus will have little effect on public opinion because Americans who are already pro-Israeli will see it in a positive light, while Americans who are already critical of Israeli policies will see it as merely a manifestation of Trump’s indulgence of Netanyahu. In other words, it won’t change much.

Wyoming Star: Given the destruction in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis, what are the chances of a long-term resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict? What do you think the Middle East will look like in five years if the Israel-Palestine conflict remains unresolved?

Prof. Aftandilian: Whether the US likes it or not, the Palestinian issue will remain the major unresolved issue in the Middle East for some time to come.

A genuine peace will be needed to dampen the violence in the region, but that is a long ways off given the strength of Israeli right, which is opposed to territorial compromise, and ongoing divisions within the Palestinian community between the secular Fatah faction and the Islamist groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.