Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has signaled potential instability for his government if their jointly-backed presidential candidate fails to secure victory in the upcoming May election, Bloomberg reports.
This development adds to the political turmoil in the Black Sea nation, already roiled by a controversial election process.
Ciolacu’s warning comes after authorities recently barred far-right frontrunner Calin Georgescu from participating in the election, echoing a similar incident last year when the top court annulled the election after Georgescu surprisingly won the first round.
Despite Georgescu’s absence, the coalition’s unity candidate, former National Liberal Party leader Crin Antonescu, has failed to gain significant traction in the polls. Antonescu is supported by Ciolacu’s Social Democrats, the Liberals, and an ethnic Hungarian party. A defeat for Antonescu would severely impact the government’s stability, Ciolacu cautioned.
The tumultuous election season has plunged Romania, a NATO and European Union member state bordering war-torn Ukraine, into its most significant political crisis since the fall of communism.
While Ciolacu did not explicitly state that his government coalition would collapse in the event of a defeat, the implications are clear. Short of a new election, which is currently less likely due to the ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) leading in the polls, a coalition reshuffle could lead to Ciolacu’s departure or the formation of a minority government.
The situation has drawn international attention, with US officials reportedly pressing Bucharest to allow Georgescu to run. US Vice President JD Vance criticized the court ruling that canceled the previous election, calling the intelligence used “flimsy” in a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February.
The Constitutional Court canceled the election in December, and a new election was scheduled for May 4.
Following Georgescu’s first-round victory last year, Romanian voters returned to the polls for the parliamentary election, which Ciolacu’s Social Democrats won. Now, the premier’s pro-European coalition has united behind Antonescu as their best hope to counter the rise of the far right.
However, current polling data paints a grim picture for Antonescu. According to an AtlastIntel poll published this week, Antonescu trails both far-right AUR leader George Simion and independent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan in the presidential race. The poll indicates that Dan, who campaigns against establishment parties, would win the presidency in a runoff.
Despite these challenges, over a fifth of voters remain undecided, providing an opportunity for the main parties to mobilize their political machinery. Ciolacu and Antonescu are scheduled to meet with mayors across the country on Wednesday in an effort to bolster their support.
