Declining Travel Demand Leads to Reduced Flights Between Canada and the US

Canadian airlines are scaling back flights to the United States as travel demand weakens, Business Insider reports.

According to travel data firm OAG, bookings on flights from Canada to the US have fallen by more than 70% for every month through September compared to last year.

In response, airlines are cutting capacity, with reductions totaling 320,000 seats. The decline in available seats will continue through October, with a 3.5% decrease in July and August.

Industry analysts suggest economic uncertainty and trade tensions could be discouraging Canadian travelers from visiting the US John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, noted that the sharp drop indicates travelers are delaying or avoiding US bookings due to these uncertainties.

The decline isn’t limited to air travel—US Customs and Border Protection reported that 500,000 fewer people crossed the land border from Canada into the US in February, a 12.5% drop compared to the same month last year.

To adjust for declining US demand, some Canadian airlines are shifting their focus to other destinations.

• WestJet, Canada’s second-largest carrier, canceled routes between New York and Calgary and between Orlando and Edmonton.

• Instead, the airline is expanding routes to Europe, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

• John Weatherill, WestJet’s Chief Commercial Officer, said the airline is operating its largest-ever transatlantic schedule from Atlantic Canada to meet changing travel preferences.

The decline in Canadian visitors comes amid a downward revision in US international tourism forecasts. Tourism Economics initially projected a 9% increase in international visitors to the US in 2024 but has since revised that to a 5% decrease.

Trade disputes may be a contributing factor. After US President Donald Trump announced auto tariffs on Canada, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by calling the move unjustified and a breach of trade agreements. He signaled that Canada would consider retaliatory measures in the coming weeks.