Tesla’s vehicle deliveries for the first quarter are expected to come in below initial forecasts, as analysts cite weakening demand, global competition, and ongoing consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk.
Wall Street projections now estimate Tesla will report deliveries of approximately 373,000 vehicles for the January–March period, a 3.6% decline from last year. However, some analysts, including those from Deutsche Bank, predict deliveries could drop even further, falling below 350,000 units.
The downward revision comes amid growing protests against Tesla, driven by concerns over Musk’s political involvement and his role in federal budget cuts as an advisor to President Donald Trump. The “Tesla Takedown” movement, which has spread across the US and parts of Europe, has led to vandalism at Tesla stores and a drop in brand perception, particularly among left-leaning consumers who once formed a strong base for the company.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, noted that Tesla’s brand has become “far more politicized than any public company’s brand should wish to be,” potentially impacting sales.
Beyond consumer sentiment, Tesla faces increased competition in major markets like China and Europe.
China: Tesla’s sales in February fell 49% year-over-year, as domestic automakers like BYD and Xiaomi continue to capture market share with aggressive pricing and advanced technology.
Europe: Registrations for Tesla’s popular Model Y and Model 3 dropped 65% and 14%, respectively, in February, with overall sales in the region down 49% in early 2025.
United States: RBC Capital Markets forecasts 152,000 vehicle deliveries, as buyers hold off on purchases while awaiting updates to the Model Y or exploring alternative EV options.
Tesla recently introduced a refreshed Model Y with upgraded features, which could help boost sales in later quarters. However, many consumers are delaying purchases in anticipation of a lower-cost Tesla model expected later this year.
Additionally, the 25% import tariffs set to take effect on April 3 could impact Tesla’s supply chain. While the company produces most of its US-sold vehicles domestically, some key components are sourced internationally, raising concerns about cost increases.
Tesla’s stock has dropped 35% year-to-date, with shares down 4% in premarket trading on Monday. Investors are closely watching Wednesday’s delivery report for signs of recovery or further market challenges.
Despite the recent setbacks, Tesla maintains its outlook for a “return to growth” in 2025, forecasting 30% sales growth for the year. However, analysts remain cautious, warning that brand damage, competitive pressures, and shifting consumer sentiment could pose long-term risks.
Tesla will release its official first-quarter sales and production data on April 3, 2025.
With input from Quartz, the Guardian, and Reuters.
