ASML Misses Order Forecasts as Trade Policy Uncertainty Looms

Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML reported lower-than-expected first-quarter orders, citing growing uncertainty from recent US trade policy developments.

The company posted net bookings of €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion), falling short of analysts’ forecast of €4.89 billion, according to Visible Alpha consensus estimates.

Although ASML’s first-quarter revenue of €7.74 billion narrowly missed expectations, its net profit of €2.36 billion exceeded projections. Despite the shortfall in orders, CEO Christophe Fouquet expressed confidence in long-term demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence trends. He maintained the company’s full-year revenue guidance of €30 billion to €35 billion.

However, Fouquet acknowledged that the evolving trade landscape is complicating the company’s outlook.

“Tariffs are creating a new uncertainty, both for the broader economy and for our potential market demands,” he said.

ASML’s shares declined roughly 5% on Wednesday following the earnings release.

The semiconductor industry has been under pressure in recent weeks, as markets respond to signals from former US President Donald Trump about imposing tariffs on key electronic goods, including smartphones and chips. Though certain categories were briefly exempted, follow-up remarks from US officials suggested more stringent measures could still be introduced, adding further ambiguity.

On Tuesday, the US Commerce Department also announced a national security investigation into semiconductor imports, a move that could result in additional tariffs or restrictions. Industry analysts say the potential impact on global supply chains remains unclear.

Despite the uncertainty, ASML continues to anticipate growth in 2025 and 2026, with customer conversations supporting that view. The company also reaffirmed its longer-term forecast, projecting annual revenue could reach between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030.

Orders for ASML’s advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems—a critical technology for leading-edge chip manufacturing—totaled €1.2 billion, below analyst expectations of €1.58 billion.

For the second quarter, ASML expects revenue in the range of €7.2 billion to €7.7 billion, with gross margins between 50% and 53%. The wider-than-usual range reflects the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics.

With input from Reuters, CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal.