Polish PM Tusk Faces Déjà Vu as Presidential Candidate Falters Ahead of Election

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk may be experiencing a sense of déjà vu as his preferred candidate for president, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, sees his lead in opinion polls dwindling just a month before the May 18 election, Bloomberg reports.

Trzaskowski, initially the front-runner, has lost eight percentage points in the latest survey, published Thursday by Ipsos pollster. This drop follows a perceived lackluster performance in a televised debate last week and narrows his support to 28%, compared to 22% for Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the main opposition Law & Justice party.

This sudden shift in momentum is drawing comparisons to the 2015 presidential election, where the candidate of Tusk’s ruling Civic Platform initially appeared poised for an easy victory, only to lose after a series of missteps and poor debate performances.

In 2015, Tusk was serving as European Council president in Brussels, observing from afar as Law & Justice capitalized on the presidential race’s momentum to sweep into power later that year. That election ushered in eight years of turbulent nationalist rule that strained Poland’s relationship with the European Union due to concerns over the rule of law.

While the circumstances differ this time – with no parliamentary election anticipated for the next two years and Civic Platform leading in current polls – securing the presidency remains crucial for Tusk to advance his legislative agenda. Incumbent President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the former nationalist government, has threatened to use his veto power to block key initiatives, including changes to the court system and the liberalization of strict abortion laws.

Despite the recent dip in polls, Trzaskowski still has a path to victory. If no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote on May 18, a runoff election will be held two weeks later between the top two contenders. According to the Ipsos poll, Trzaskowski is projected to defeat Nawrocki in the second round by a margin of 50% to 43%. The Ipsos poll surveyed 1,000 adult Poles between April 14-16.

Trzaskowski’s troubles began last Friday during a three-hour debate where he struggled to effectively challenge Nawrocki. The debate, initially planned as a head-to-head between the two front-runners, was expanded at the last minute to include six other candidates following protests from their respective campaigns.

The Warsaw mayor appeared unprepared when Nawrocki presented him with a rainbow flag of the LGBTQ+ community, which Trzaskowski quickly removed from his podium. This action drew criticism from another candidate. While Trzaskowski has historically presented himself as a liberal, he has recently attempted to solidify his stance on issues like migration to broaden his appeal, potentially alienating some moderate voters.

Marcin Kierwinski, a minister in Tusk’s government, downplayed concerns regarding Trzaskowski’s declining support.