Amidst a backdrop of recent leadership upheaval and political instability, former opposition leader Lee Jae-myung appears to be the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for June 3, Bloomberg reports.
The election follows a period of significant political turbulence, including resignations, leadership changes, and critical court rulings.
Lee, of the Democratic Party, is expected to face a challenge from either former Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo or another candidate emerging from the ruling People Power Party (PPP). The victor will inherit the daunting task of restoring confidence in South Korea’s democracy, healing a deeply divided nation, and safeguarding the country’s trade-reliant economy amidst global trade pressures.
While Lee currently enjoys a lead in the polls, his path to the presidency is far from assured. He continues to grapple with ongoing legal challenges, stemming from past campaigns, and faces a deeply polarized political landscape unlikely to forgive the partisan tactics he employed to oust former President Yoon Suk Yeol.
“Lee is still on track to win the election as many voters associate the PPP with martial law despite his legal situation, but he’ll face a mountain of challenges – a divided nation, an economic slump and trade talks, just to name a few,” commented Choi Byung-chun, former deputy head of the DP’s think tank.
Recent polling data paints a mixed picture. A Gallup Korea poll released on April 25th showed Lee with 38% support compared to 6% for Han Duck-soo. Amongst the PPP hopefuls, former party chair Han Dong-hoon and ex-Employment and Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo garnered 8% and 6% respectively. Han Duck-soo is expected to attempt to consolidate conservative voters by aligning his campaign with the eventual PPP nominee.
A joint survey released on Thursday showed Lee with 42%, followed by Han Duck-soo with 13%, Han Dong-hoon with 9% and Kim with 6%. However, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Han’s support surged to 31%, while Lee maintained a lead at 46%. These numbers suggest the recent entry of Han Duck-soo into the race, alongside Lee’s continued legal battles, may be impacting his initial lead.
Perhaps the most pressing immediate threat to Lee’s candidacy is the ongoing election law violation case stemming from the 2021 presidential campaign against Yoon Suk Yeol. The Supreme Court recently overturned an earlier acquittal ruling and remanded the case back to the high court for sentencing. The outcome of this case could significantly impact the trajectory of the election.
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