EXCLUSIVE: Behind Outbreak: Competing Narratives on COVID’s First Spark

Over two weeks ago, China reignited the debate over COVID-19’s origins with a 23-page white paper suggesting the virus may have emerged in the United States. The report, issued less than two weeks after President Donald Trump’s administration alleged the virus leaked from a Wuhan laboratory, accuses Washington of evading responsibility and “shamelessly politicizing” efforts to trace the source of the pandemic.

The white paper asserts that “substantial evidence” points to a potential U.S. origin of the virus, even citing a Missouri lawsuit that accused China of hoarding medical supplies and concealing the outbreak. At the same time, it reaffirms findings from a WHO-China joint investigation that deemed a lab leak “extremely unlikely.” The U.S., it claims, has ignored the “legitimate concerns of the international community.”

To explore the implications of these claims and the broader challenges of determining COVID-19’s origin, Wyoming Star (WS) spoke with Dr. David Relman, a leading American microbiologist and professor in Medicine at the Stanford University School of Medicine.

WS: What is your assessment of China’s recent white paper claiming that COVID-19 may have originated in the United States?

The vast preponderance of evidence strongly indicates to everyone else in the world, besides PRC [the People’s Republic of China] leadership, that the COVID-19 pandemic began in China, in or near Wuhan—this is where early cases cluster in space and time.

WS: How credible is the evidence presented by China suggesting early U.S. cases of COVID-19 prior to the Wuhan outbreak?

The earliest cases almost certainly began well before the PRC first told the rest of the world about the disease.

WS: Some have pointed to early scientific publications in China as evidence of a delayed disclosure. What’s your perspective on that?

The earliest publications from China about the virus strongly suggest that Chinese investigators had information about the virus at least months before they first told the rest of the world about the disease.

WS: Does that mean only China should be held accountable?

Having said this, there was also an important lack of openness, transparency, and concern about risks in both China and the United States involving work on wildlife and potentially dangerous wildlife-associated viruses, regardless of how the pandemic began. This includes laxity in allowing wildlife markets to flourish in big cities.

Editor’s Note

As China and the United States continue to trade accusations, the search for COVID-19’s origin risks being engulfed by geopolitics.

Yet as Dr. Relman makes clear, this isn’t a zero-sum blame game. The global community’s real task is to learn from past mistakes, demand greater transparency across borders, and work together to prevent the next pandemic. As he aptly puts it:

There is more than enough culpability to go around.