Oil Prices Rise Amid Limited OPEC+ Output Increase and Rising Global Tensions

Oil prices advanced on Monday as investors responded to a smaller-than-expected supply increase from OPEC+ and growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran, Bloomberg reports.

Brent crude for August delivery approached $65 per barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $62.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced over the weekend that they would raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The move aligned with market forecasts and fell short of speculation that a larger increase might be in the works. The restrained output hike provided some support to oil prices, which had declined 2.2% the previous week.

Geopolitical developments also added upward pressure. Ukraine launched strikes on Russian air bases, and Iran pushed back against international criticism over its expanding stockpile of enriched uranium. These developments have reduced the likelihood of increased oil supply from heavily sanctioned OPEC+ members like Iran and Russia re-entering the market anytime soon.

Trade tensions continued to weigh on investor sentiment as well, with President Donald Trump announcing plans to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum. The broader uncertainty has contributed to oil price volatility in recent months.

Crude prices have been on a turbulent ride this year, falling to a four-year low earlier in response to ongoing trade disputes and a shift in OPEC+ policy away from aggressive production cuts. Despite recent gains, oil remains nearly 15% lower year-to-date.

Within the OPEC+ alliance, the decision to raise production was not unanimous. While Saudi Arabia pushed for the increase to rein in overproduction by countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, others — including Russia, Algeria, and Oman — advocated for a pause. The group is scheduled to reconvene on July 6 to determine production targets for August.

“Brent should be well supported in the middle of our expected $60–$65 summer range until we get a better understanding of how quickly actual OPEC production is rising,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.

He noted that internal divisions within OPEC+ may slow the pace of future supply increases.