It’s official: Trump got his deal—but Europe isn’t exactly popping champagne over it.
After tense negotiations and the looming threat of a 30% tariff hammer, the US and European Union finally struck a trade agreement on Sunday. The deal, finalized in—no joke—a ballroom at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, sets tariffs on most EU exports to the US at 15%. That’s better than what Trump had been threatening, but still more than triple the previous average of 4.8%.
Prime Minister François Bayrou didn’t mince words, calling the agreement a “dark day” for Europe and accusing the bloc of bowing to Washington.
“It’s a dark day when an alliance of free peoples… resolves to submission,” Bayrou posted on X.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the deal as a way to avoid “needless escalation,” but Germany’s powerful industrial lobbies were far less thrilled. The BDI industry federation and the VCI chemical association warned of “serious damage” and high costs, especially for exporters already under pressure.
Car manufacturers, particularly in Germany, are bracing for impact. The 15% tariff on automotive products is a blow for an industry already scrambling to modernize and facing global competition.
So, What’s in the Deal?
- Tariffs: 15% on most EU exports, including cars, wine, and pharmaceuticals. That’s down from Trump’s threatened 30%, but still far higher than the pre-2024 status quo.
- Steel and aluminum: Still hit with a 50% tariff, though the EU hopes to negotiate a quota system.
- Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors: Newly slapped with 15% tariffs.
- Concessions: The EU agreed to open up more to US goods and invest $600 billion in the US, including buying American energy and arms.
- No EU retaliation (for now): Brussels held off on hitting back with its own tariffs in exchange for “temporary stability.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tried to put a brave face on the deal, calling it “predictable” and “balanced”—though even she admitted that the tariffs were “the best we could get.” Trump, meanwhile, declared it the “biggest deal ever made,” and his team is already touting the $90 billion in potential tariff revenue.
“Tomorrow the American media will probably run headlines like ‘Trump Only Got 99.9% of What He Asked For’,” joked Vice President JD Vance on X.
Stock markets rose Monday on relief that a worst-case scenario had been avoided:
- Germany’s DAX jumped 0.86%
- France’s CAC 40 gained 1.1%
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%
But analysts aren’t all convinced this was a great outcome. Berenberg Bank called it “asymmetric” and said it would hurt both sides, especially Europe in the short term. UniCredit chimed in, calling the deal “heavily tilted” in favor of the US.
Sources say the EU switched tactics after June’s NATO summit. Brussels traded its dreams of a comprehensive, UK-style zero-tariff deal for defense commitments and a path to avoid conflict with its largest military ally. Trump’s unpredictability—especially regarding support for Ukraine and NATO—likely played a part in the decision.
“The EU had no choice. Trump wasn’t going to back down,” said former EU negotiator John Clarke. “It’s a bad day for international trade… but it could’ve been worse.”
This deal comes just days after Trump struck another big agreement with Japan. Now, all eyes are on China, where US and Chinese officials are meeting in Stockholm. Hopes are high that a fresh 90-day truce could be announced—but unlike Europe, Beijing has been less willing to roll over.
Bloomberg, BBC, the Guardian, and the Washington Post contributed to this report.
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