Gold Goes Wild: Prices Hit Record High as US Slaps Swiss Bars With Steep Tariffs

Gold just hit a new all-time high, and you can thank a hefty US import tariff for lighting the spark.

Futures for the precious metal surged past $3,534 an ounce Friday — the highest ever — after news broke that the US would be hitting certain gold bars imported from Switzerland with a punishing 39% tariff. That’s not a typo. Nearly 40%.

The decision instantly sent shockwaves through global markets and dealt a serious blow to Switzerland, which refines more than 70% of the world’s gold. For an industry used to being a quiet safe haven in uncertain times, this is as loud as it gets.

In a ruling quietly signed on July 31 and made public this week, US Customs and Border Protection confirmed that 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars — the most common formats used to back contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) — are not exempt from tariffs.

That’s a big reversal. Previously, these gold bars were assumed to be safe from Trump’s aggressive “reciprocal” trade strategy. Now, they’re smack in the middle of it.

Cue the chaos.

Swiss gold exports to the US had skyrocketed earlier this year as investors scrambled to hedge against inflation and global instability. According to Swiss customs data, more than $36 billion in gold left Switzerland for the US in just the first quarter — more than two-thirds of the country’s trade surplus with America.

That spike may have drawn the wrong kind of attention. The Swiss Precious Metals Association even admitted that the surge was “an exceptional situation” driven by investor fear over tariffs. President Donald Trump didn’t like what he saw — and responded with one of his highest tariffs yet.

Switzerland’s president reportedly made a last-minute trip to Washington to try and defuse the situation, but returned empty-handed. Now, Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss precious metals group, is warning that the move could seriously strain the long-standing gold trade between the two countries.

“This makes it economically unviable to export these products to the US,” Wild said.

The industry, already facing growing regulatory pressure, now has to grapple with the idea that the world’s top market for refined gold bars might be effectively closed off.

Back in May, after Trump floated the idea of sweeping new tariffs, US gold demand went wild. Retailers like Costco were swamped — even capping how many bars people could buy in a day. The anticipation of tariffs sent investors sprinting toward bullion like it was toilet paper in 2020.

Now that the tariffs are real, the price of gold has gone parabolic.

Let’s zoom out.

The spike in gold is about more than just taxes. A trifecta of global instability is fueling the rally:

1. Tariffs & Trade Drama: The gold ruling is part of Trump’s larger trade offensive. India, China, and other major trading partners are also facing tariff threats.
2. Geopolitical Tension: Trump is playing dealmaker again — trying to negotiate a Ukraine ceasefire while rattling trade sabers at Russia’s allies. The pressure is raising global risk, and when investors get nervous, they buy gold.
3. Economic Jitters: Job growth in the US is slowing, inflation is stubborn, and some economists are whispering the dreaded word: stagflation. When fear sets in, gold shines.

“Gold’s panic ascent shows that even safe-haven assets aren’t immune from the chaos of the tariff age,” said Susannah Streeter, head of markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

For now, analysts are scrambling to understand the full fallout. The spread between futures and spot prices ballooned to $95, and COMEX inventories have been flooded with Swiss bars in recent months as traders rushed to lock in positions ahead of the tariffs.

“If US demand rebounds and stockpiles shrink, this could actually be a huge win for American refiners,” said Adrian Ash of BullionVault. “They’ll turn big 400-ounce bars into retail-ready units for a premium.”

But that’s a long play. Right now, the industry is focused on what this means in the short term — and how much higher gold might go.

Wall Street is watching gold with intense interest. Goldman Sachs is already forecasting gold to reach $3,700 by year-end, and some bulls like Ed Yardeni think it could push as high as $4,000 by the end of 2025.

“We’re in a moment where gold feels like the only safe bet,” said one commodities trader. “Between tariffs, conflict, and a shaky economy, it’s not about yield anymore. It’s about survival.”

The gold market has been rattled — and energized — by a US policy move that most people didn’t see coming. With Swiss gold now effectively taxed out of competitiveness, prices have shot to historic highs, and traders are bracing for more volatility.

Whether you see this as an overreaction or a glimpse into a new normal, one thing’s clear: gold is back in the spotlight, and it’s glinting with uncertainty.

With input from the Guardian, Business Insider, and Reuters.