President Donald Trump wants China to super-size its soybean orders — as in, quadruple them — just days before a key tariff truce between Washington and Beijing is set to expire.
In a late-night Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump said China was “worried about a shortage” and urged President Xi to quickly ramp up purchases of US beans.
“Rapid service will be provided,” he wrote, adding a cheerful “Thank you President XI.”
Soybean traders pounced. Chicago futures jumped 2.38% to $10.11 a bushel on Monday after Trump’s post. But analysts were quick to pour cold water on the idea.
“It’s highly unlikely China would ever buy four times its usual volume from the US,” said Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting.
For context, China imported about 105 million metric tons of soybeans last year — roughly three-quarters from Brazil and less than a quarter from the US Quadrupling US supply would mean flipping that balance almost entirely.
The timing is no accident. The current US-China tariff truce runs out August 12, and while the Trump administration has hinted it might extend it, it’s unclear if a massive soybean deal is part of the price.
China’s soymeal futures dipped 0.65% on expectations US shipments might boost supply. But on Beijing’s side, signs point to a willingness to skip US beans altogether this year. Chinese feedmakers have already booked test shipments of soymeal from Argentina, likely as a hedge against potential Q4 supply hiccups.
Under Trump’s first-term “Phase One” trade deal, China promised to buy more US ag products, but fell well short of the targets. This year, it hasn’t booked any US soybeans for the fourth quarter — a worrying sign for American farmers staring down harvest season.
As one ag analyst put it, China has options, but for the US soybean industry, there’s no market like China. Last year alone, Beijing bought 22.1 million tons from America and 74.6 million from Brazil. Quadrupling those US numbers? That’s a tall order — even for Trump.
The original story by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Chandni Shah for Reuters.
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