What Happens When Countries Fudge Their Numbers? Why America’s Economic Data Matters More Than You Think

Cooking the books is bad enough if you’re trying to hide your credit card debt from the bank. When a country does it, the fallout can be catastrophic.

That’s why economists are rattled after President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month, right after a weak jobs report. The White House insists the move was about “accuracy” and “restoring trust.” But critics worry it could be the first step toward politicizing—or even faking—America’s economic data.

There’s no proof the numbers have been manipulated, and experts stress the BLS is still one of the world’s most reliable agencies. Still, history shows what happens when governments try to fudge the truth—and it’s not pretty. Just ask Greece or Argentina.

In 2004, Greece admitted it had lied about its deficit to sneak into the eurozone. By 2010, when officials finally came clean about the real numbers, investors panicked. Borrowing costs skyrocketed, austerity slammed the economy, and angry Greeks filled the streets, clashing with riot police. The country’s credibility was shattered.

Argentina has its own history of statistical trickery. In 2007, then-President Néstor Kirchner demoted the official who dared to report inflation was soaring. From that point on, inflation data became a running joke, with investors and even regular citizens treating government numbers as fiction. The consequences were brutal: Argentina’s credit rating sank deep into junk territory, borrowing money became painfully expensive, and decades later, the country is still struggling with investor distrust.

In both cases, the lies made already-bad economic problems far worse. Once trust evaporates, lenders demand higher interest, businesses hesitate to invest, and ordinary people suffer.

The US isn’t Greece or Argentina. Its economy—more than $30 trillion strong—is the largest in the world and still growing at a healthy clip. That sheer scale gives America a buffer smaller countries don’t have.

As Robert Shapiro, a former Commerce Department official, put it:

“We’re the largest economy in the world. We are by far the greatest financial center in the world.”

That clout means investors aren’t going to abandon US data overnight, even if political drama heats up.

Still, trust is fragile. The BLS has long been considered the gold standard for labor market data, guiding decisions from the Federal Reserve to Wall Street to small business owners. Undermine that credibility, and ripple effects could spread across global markets—from pension funds in Europe to currency reserves in Asia.

Reliable data isn’t just a nerdy economist concern. It underpins nearly everything: how much interest the government pays on bonds, how companies plan hiring and expansion, and even how much you pay for a mortgage. If investors start to question US economic reports, borrowing costs for the government—and by extension, taxpayers—could rise.

Michael Heydt, a sovereign debt analyst at Morningstar DBRS, summed it up simply:

“There’s no substitute for credible government data.”

Here’s the twist: the BLS has been dealing with its own headaches long before Trump’s firing spree. Big revisions to jobs data have become more common since the pandemic, thanks in part to budget cuts and the sheer complexity of gathering responses from thousands of businesses.

For example, a routine revision in 2024 showed the economy had actually created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported. That doesn’t mean anyone was lying—it’s just how the process works when new survey data trickles in.

Some economists argue the models are outdated and in desperate need of modernization.

“Several economists and research teams I personally engage with have flagged these as structural issues with the data long before Trump’s involvement,” said Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief economist at StoneX.

Even if the US tried to massage its numbers, it wouldn’t get far. Investors have plenty of alternative data sources—from private payroll processors to shipping trackers to consumer spending reports—that would quickly reveal discrepancies. If the official numbers suddenly looked “too good,” markets would smell the manipulation instantly.

In other words, lying about the economy isn’t just unethical. It’s self-defeating. The US has too many eyes on it, too much at stake, and too many independent watchdogs for fake numbers to fly under the radar.

America isn’t on the brink of a Greece-style collapse. But tampering with the BLS—or even giving the impression of political meddling—risks undermining the foundation of trust that keeps the US economy running smoothly. Once credibility is gone, it’s nearly impossible to get back.

As Alan Blinder, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, warned:

“The next worry is going to be manipulation.”

For now, the US still sets the global standard. The question is whether it can keep it.

The original story by Luciana Lopez for CNN.