India’s Agni-V test sends message beyond Pakistan — eyes on China

India has just shown off one of its biggest strategic assets. On August 20, New Delhi announced it had successfully test-fired the Agni-V missile from Odisha on the Bay of Bengal coast.

The Agni-V — “fire” in Sanskrit — is a heavyweight: 17.5 metres long, 50,000kg, and capable of carrying more than 1,000kg of nuclear or conventional payload. With a range of over 5,000km and speeds close to 30,000km/h, it’s among the fastest ballistic missiles on the planet.

The timing wasn’t lost on observers. Just a week earlier, Pakistan unveiled a new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC). But experts say India’s test wasn’t really about Islamabad — it was a signal directed north, at China.

The Agni-V can reach nearly all of Asia, including China’s industrial east coast, and even parts of Europe. It was the missile’s 10th test since 2012, but the first since March 2024. The launch comes right before Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit — his first visit there since 2018.

Despite some recent thaw in ties, Delhi still sees Beijing as its main threat.

And India isn’t stopping here. Work is already underway on the Agni-VI, with an expected range of more than 10,000km and multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs).

Pakistan’s arsenal is more limited. Its Shaheen-III can reach 2,750km, while the Ababeel (2,200km) is MIRV-enabled but far shorter-ranged than India’s systems.

For Washington, India’s rise fits neatly into its Indo-Pacific strategy, with support dating back to the 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver that effectively gave India de facto nuclear weapons status without signing the NPT. Pakistan, however, has faced more scrutiny — especially last year, when a White House official warned its growing missile reach could eventually target the US.

Still, under Trump, that concern has been muted. As Clary summed it up:

“For now, so long as Pakistan keeps its missile tests limited to ranges already demonstrated by the Shaheen-III and Ababeel, I don’t expect Western governments to concern themselves overly with South Asia’s missile developments. There are more than enough other problems to keep them busy.”