Sen. Joni Ernst says she’s done after this term. In a video posted Tuesday, the Iowa Republican confirmed she won’t seek reelection in 2026, ending months of will-she/won’t-she chatter.
“This was no easy decision,” Ernst said, citing an “aging and growing” family. “I never imagined this farm girl would have the opportunity to serve as a lieutenant colonel and then a United States senator.”
Ernst’s exit cracks open a rare Iowa Senate seat in a state known for marathon tenures. She first won the seat in 2014, succeeding Democrat Tom Harkin after his 30-year run. Iowa’s other senator, Republican Chuck Grassley, has held his seat since 1980. Ernst was Iowa’s first woman elected to Congress and the Senate’s first female combat veteran, retiring from the Army National Guard as a lieutenant colonel.
Politically, the ripple effects start immediately. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), a third-term congresswoman from the Cedar Rapids area, is widely expected to jump in. She wasted no time praising Ernst and signaling her own ambitions: Trump, she posted, needs “a fighter in the Senate who will always have his back.” An official announcement is “soon,” she said. Her move would set off a domino in House races just as Republicans try to hang onto their majority.
Two Republicans were already positioned to challenge Ernst before her announcement — former state Sen. Jim Carlin and veteran Joshua Smith — but a Hinson entry would instantly reshuffle the primary. On the Democratic side, the field is taking shape: state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, Des Moines school board chair Jackie Norris, and former chamber executive Nathan Sage are all running, eager to test whether Iowa’s rightward shift is permanent or merely recent momentum.
Ernst leaves with a national profile forged by her 2014 “make ’em squeal” ads and years in Senate GOP leadership, including work on defense issues and combating sexual assault in the military. But the past year brought cross-pressures: criticism from Democrats over her Medicaid-cuts retort at a town hall, and grumbles on the right after she hesitated on one of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees.
For Republicans, the seat still leans their way — Iowa has trended red, and Trump won it by double digits in 2024 — but an open race can be unpredictable, especially if Hinson vacates a competitive House district. Expect national money and attention to follow fast.
Ernst, 55, stressed she’s not coasting to the finish line. “I’m not slowing down anytime soon,” she said, promising to push her priorities through the end of the term. After two terms — and a decade of making Washington “squeal” — Iowa’s farm-girl-turned-senator is heading home, and the 2026 battle to replace her starts now.
With input from the Associated Press, FOX News, CBS News, and the Hill.
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