Rubio Threatens US “Response” after Bolsonaro Coup Verdict; Brazil Fires Back

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Washington “will respond accordingly” to Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction for plotting a coup — a warning that immediately drew a sharp rebuke from Brazil’s government and fresh questions about what the US might actually do next.

Rubio posted on X that “political persecutions by sanctioned human rights abuser Alexandre de Moraes continue,” blasting Brazil’s Supreme Court after a five-justice panel found the former president guilty on all counts tied to efforts to cling to power following his 2022 election loss.

“The United States will respond accordingly to this witch hunt,” he wrote, without offering specifics.

Brazil’s Foreign Ministry called Rubio’s remark a threat that “attacks Brazilian authority and ignores the facts,” adding that Brazil’s democracy “will not be intimidated.”

Bolsonaro, 70, became the first ex-president in Brazil’s history convicted for attacking democracy. A Supreme Court majority sentenced him to 27 years and three months in prison, finding he led a criminal effort to overturn the 2022 result and encouraged the January 8, 2023 rampage in Brasília. He denies the charges and had been under house arrest ahead of the ruling. His lawyers say they’ll appeal; allies in Congress are already floating amnesty.

The verdict sparked street celebrations from Bolsonaro’s critics and fury among supporters. Progressive leaders across Latin America cheered the ruling, while right-wing figures close to Bolsonaro — and allies in the US — decried it as politicized justice.

President Donald Trump, who has been unusually vocal about the case, called the conviction “very surprising,” adding he knew Bolsonaro as “a good man” and a “good president.” Earlier this year, Trump slapped 50% tariffs on most Brazilian goods, framing Brazil’s prosecution of Bolsonaro as a “witch hunt,” and sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw key Bolsonaro cases. Some Brazilian exports were later exempted from the tariff hit.

Rubio didn’t detail what a US “response” would be, but the administration has already shown it’s willing to leverage economic tools. Beyond July’s tariffs, Washington imposed sanctions on de Moraes for alleged civil-liberties abuses. Additional measures — from targeted sanctions to broader trade pressure — are now back in the conversation.

Brazil, for its part, has signaled it won’t be cowed. Officials have condemned US commentary as interference and moved to challenge the tariff barrage at the World Trade Organization. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has repeatedly said Brazil’s defense of democracy is “a matter for Brazilians” and that “no one is above the law.”

What to watch next

• Appeals & amnesty maneuvers: Bolsonaro’s team will try to chip away at the ruling while congressional allies push amnesty bills. Either course could spark a fresh institutional clash with the Supreme Court.
• S. escalation (or not): Rubio’s promise of a response, layered on top of tariffs and sanctions already in place, sets up potential further steps — but also risks blowing up ties with Latin America’s biggest economy.
• Bilateral fallout: Brazil has already filed a WTO complaint over US tariffs and hinted at legal action stateside. Expect Brasília to rally international support against what it frames as extraterritorial pressure.
• Domestic temperature in Brazil: Pro- and anti-Bolsonaro mobilizations are likely to continue. Security forces will be keen to prevent a repeat of the 2023 rampage.

Brazil’s courts just delivered a once-unthinkable sentence. Washington’s top diplomat says the US will answer. Whether that means more tariffs, new sanctions, or just political theater, the next moves in both capitals will set the tone for US-Brazil relations — and for how far the US is willing to go in defending an ally who now sits on the wrong side of his country’s highest court.

With input from Reuters, the Guardian, Al Jazeera, and BBC.