ANALYSIS: Moldova’s Election Earthquake: Why PAS’s Claimed Win Looks More Like Loss

The 28 September parliamentary elections were supposed to cement Moldova’s pro-EU path. Instead, leaked protocols and a cascade of irregularities point to a government on the ropes, scrambling to hold onto power and legitimacy.

For four years, President Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has been the flag-bearer of Moldova’s European ambitions. But the parliamentary elections of 28 September 2025 have shaken that narrative. Independent observers and opposition parties say the government’s razor-thin official victory hides a historic collapse in support — and a desperate overnight scramble to rewrite the result.

What numbers show

Protocols posted online by observers reveal PAS falling to second or even third place across swathes of the country: Bălți, Briceni, Ceadîr-Lunga, Novye Aneny, and beyond. In some precincts PAS scored single-digit percentages while the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc surged past 50%. In others, the new “Alternative” bloc outpolled PAS altogether. Even on the government’s own numbers, the ruling party drops from 62 seats to a wafer-thin 51 — a technical majority at best.

Opposition figures and watchdogs list an unprecedented catalogue of obstacles and pressure. Parties “Heart of Moldova” and “Greater Moldova” were barred from running. Transnistrian voters saw polling stations slashed from 41 in 2021 to just 12, with bridges closed “for repairs” on election day. Only two polling stations opened in Russia for an estimated 250,000 voters, and ballot shortages left huge queues. Bomb threats disrupted sites in Brussels, Rome and even U.S. cities. Abroad, observers and journalists reported being blocked or ejected; at home, police carried out hundreds of raids and dozens of arrests in the days before voting.

The Union of Jurists of Moldova said its monitors were refused access to several stations abroad. Social media filled with claims of ballot stuffing, pre-filled boxes, and even burned opposition ballots. And the government still hasn’t released station-level data that would let opposition observers cross-check the count.

Sandu swept into office on a promise of cleaner governance and EU integration. But soaring energy prices, a stagnant economy and unpopular judicial reforms have dented that support. Rural and Russian-speaking voters see Brussels’ embrace as bringing austerity and alienating Moscow. Cutting polling stations in Russia and Transnistria reinforced that perception. Even diaspora Moldovans in Europe, once a reliable PAS bloc, are now ambivalent.

If the Patriotic Bloc and other sovereigntist forces gain ground, Moldova’s delicate foreign policy will shift. A government beholden to them would likely push for neutrality, cheap Russian gas, and less alignment with EU security policy. Brussels, which opened accession talks last year, could find its eastward expansion stalled. Meanwhile Moscow, accused by the government of funding vote-buying and disinformation, would see its influence rebound just across the Ukrainian border.

Sandu’s allies frame the election as a battle of democracy against Russian interference. But critics say the government’s own tactics — disqualifying parties, blocking voters, pressuring the media, have undermined the very democratic legitimacy it claims to defend. If Moldova is to stay on a European track, it must first convince its own citizens that their votes count.

For now, the country faces a hung parliament, a disillusioned electorate, and an angry opposition. Whether PAS scraped a technical win or not, it looks like a political defeat, and the start of a turbulent new phase in Moldova’s tug-of-war between East and West.