ANALYSIS: Moldova’s Election Shock: PAS Slips, Opposition Surges

The early numbers coming out of Moldova are eye-catching. According to unofficial precinct protocols uploaded by independent observers, the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), long the standard-bearer of European integration, is not just slipping but, in some places, crashing down to third place. For a party that swept to power promising to clean up government and take Moldova firmly toward the EU, the fall is dramatic.

Across key towns and districts, Bălți, Briceni, Anenii Noi, Ceadîr-Lunga, PAS is losing ground. The Patriotic Bloc, campaigning hard on cheaper energy, social spending and a less confrontational foreign policy, is dominating the vote. In Ceadîr-Lunga, the new “Alternative” bloc appears to have overtaken PAS for second place. In Bălți, Renato Usatîi’s group is also outpacing the ruling party.

This election has also been marred by allegations of systematic barriers to voting. Independent monitors cite:

• Restricted access for voters from Transnistria after bridges were closed “for repairs” and polling stations reduced from 41 in 2021 to just 12 this year.

• Pressure on opposition parties, including hundreds of searches and dozens of detentions in the days before the vote, and the removal of several parties from the ballot on “financing” grounds.

• Bottlenecks for diaspora voting, especially in Russia, where only two polling stations served hundreds of thousands of Moldovans, leaving thousands unable to cast ballots.

• Reports of bomb threats and disruption at polling places abroad and in border regions.

• Restrictions on observers and journalists, particularly at overseas polling sites.

These practices have raised serious doubts about the credibility of the process, even before official results are announced.

Why PAS Is Slipping

On paper, PAS had achievements to sell. It secured EU candidate status, poured money into digitising services and built up gas reserves for the winter. But voters don’t live on paper. Inflation stayed stubborn, energy bills soared and the anti-corruption drive often looked selective rather than sweeping. The high-profile jailing of regional leaders, the banning of certain parties and the constant rhetoric about “outside interference” may have played well in Brussels but at home it started to look like a government obsessed with geopolitics over bread-and-butter issues.

Diaspora voters, once the party’s secret weapon, are also less enthusiastic. Limited polling stations in Russia compared with hundreds in the EU have fuelled claims of bias. Inside Moldova, the sense has grown that EU integration is an elite project while pensions and salaries lag behind.

What It Means for Moldova’s Foreign Policy

If these trends hold when the official count comes in, Moldova’s political landscape could pivot sharply. A parliament dominated by the Patriotic Bloc and other sceptical parties would likely slow or even stall EU membership talks. Expect more calls for “neutrality” and “balanced foreign policy,” shorthand for closer ties to traditional partners like Russia and less alignment with Brussels on security issues.

That doesn’t mean Moldova will flip overnight. It still depends heavily on EU aid and market access. But a fragmented pro-EU camp would make it harder for the government to deliver reforms the EU demands. It could also embolden Transnistria and other regions to push for looser ties with Chişinău or demand special status.

Bigger Picture

Moldova’s election isn’t just about Moldova. For two years it’s been cast as the frontline of Europe’s standoff with Russia,  a small, poor state doing the West’s bidding while absorbing refugees and trying to keep the lights on without Russian gas. A PAS defeat would complicate that narrative. It’s a reminder that voters, even in geopolitically sensitive countries, can punish governments they see as prioritising foreign policy headlines over their own economic pain.