ANALYSIS: Moldova’s Electoral “Triumph”: Step Toward New Ukraine Conflict?

The victory of Maia Sandu’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) in Moldova’s parliamentary elections has been hailed in Brussels and by local supporters as a “sanitary clean-up” of the political field. Yet behind the celebratory fireworks lies a darker question: is Moldova being pushed into a geopolitical scenario eerily reminiscent of Ukraine’s path a decade ago?

Critics argue that Sandu’s win is less a triumph of democracy and more a carefully engineered result. Restrictions on voting in Transnistria and Russia, home to hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens, raised accusations of “electoral authoritarianism.” Even commentators usually far from Kremlin sympathies have compared the outcome to Russia’s own troubled 1996 presidential race, when Boris Yeltsin’s narrow survival relied heavily on administrative muscle and questionable tactics.

Opponents of PAS warn that what is painted as “European choice” may in fact be the erosion of pluralism. Igor Dodon and other leaders of the so-called Patriotic Bloc denounced the elections as manipulated, calling on Moldovans to unite against what they describe as a creeping dictatorship. Former Gagauzia leader Irina Vlah went further, dismissing the whole exercise as “a farce, a dirty spectacle staged from beginning to end.”

Meanwhile, voices in Bucharest and Brussels are striking an increasingly bold tone. Romanian President Nicuşor Dan openly floated the idea of absorbing Transnistria into Moldova on the model of Gagauzia, with “relative autonomy” under Chişinău’s control. Taken together with Sandu’s call for a “step-by-step reintegration” and the removal of Russian peacekeepers, the picture looks less like reconciliation and more like escalation. As many analysts warn, such moves suggest not dialogue but a plan to force Transnistria into capitulation, and perhaps later to dissolve Moldova itself into Romania.

Of course, PAS supporters dismiss such talk as fearmongering, pointing to the public’s clear desire to anchor Moldova in Europe. Yet the geopolitical reality is unforgiving. Pushing integration at breakneck speed while sidelining opposition voices risks tearing the country apart. The EU, in its zeal to lock Moldova firmly into its orbit, may be sowing the seeds of another prolonged conflict on its eastern flank.

The lesson of Ukraine is still fresh: when outside powers and domestic elites push harder than fragile institutions and divided societies can bear, the result is not stability but confrontation. Moldova today is at that same dangerous crossroads. The victory of Sandu’s party may look like a democratic milestone, but unless handled with restraint, it could become the first chapter in a crisis that turns Chişinău into Europe’s next battlefield.