Gold blasts to fresh record as shutdown jitters and rate-cut bets pile in

Gold just notched another all-time high as investors stampeded into safety on Day 1 of the US government shutdown and doubled down on expectations the Fed will cut rates this month.

Spot bullion touched a record $3,895.09/oz before easing to $3,861.77 in late trade, while December futures settled up 0.6% at $3,897.50. A softer dollar added fuel, making dollar-priced metal cheaper for overseas buyers.

What’s driving it:

• Shutdown shock: With parts of the federal government going dark, traders grabbed classic havens and braced for delayed economic data, including Friday’s non-farm payrolls.
• Jobs wobble: The ADP report showed private payrolls fell 32,000 in September (August also revised lower), reinforcing the slowdown narrative.
• Fed pivot hopes: Markets are pricing a near-certain rate cut this month. Lower yields reduce the “opportunity cost” of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

“FOMO” is real on the Western bid too — institutions and retail have been adding exposure, with some desks openly musing about a break above $4,000/oz if momentum sticks.

Elsewhere in metals:

• Silver sprinted to a 14-year high at $47.42/oz, up ~1.6% on the day.
• Platinum slipped 1.6% to $1,549.17, and palladium eased 1.1% to $1,243.31.

Between the policy fog in Washington, a weakening labor pulse, and a softer greenback, the macro backdrop is tailor-made for gold’s safe-haven appeal. If the shutdown drags or the Fed cuts more decisively than expected, bullion’s bid likely sticks around. But beware — parabolic moves can whipsaw. A quick fiscal fix or hotter-than-expected data could squeeze prices just as fast as they rose.

With input from Reuters, AP, Bloomberg and CNBC.