US shoppers are gearing up for another big digital holiday season, but the growth spurt is losing steam. Adobe Analytics says online sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 will reach $253.4 billion, up 5.3% from last year. That’s solid — but a step down from 2024’s 8.7% jump and well below the ~13% 10-year average (which was juiced by 2020’s 32% pandemic spike).
Consumers still want the holidays to feel like the holidays — gifts, décor, and traditions — but they’re picky about price. Tariffs and sticky prices are squeezing budgets, and consumer confidence has wobbled. The result: shoppers hunt harder for discounts, lean on flexible payment options, and do more pre-purchase research.
This is shaping up to be the first truly AI-tinged holiday. Adobe expects traffic from generative AI chat tools to surge 520% year over year, and on peak days like Thanksgiving it could top 1,000%. Why? People are letting bots brainstorm gift ideas, compare features, and route them to deals — often spending more time exploring retailer sites than visitors who arrive via ads.
Meanwhile, phones keep taking share: mobile will account for 56.1% of online spend (about $142.7B), up from ~40% in 2020. Social commerce keeps climbing too — up 51% — with influencers steering a disproportionate chunk of traffic.
By the numbers
- Total online holiday sales: $253.4B (+5.3% YoY)
- Cyber Monday: $14.2B, +6.3% YoY (biggest online day of the year)
- Black Friday: $11.7B, +8.3%
- Cyber Week (Thu–Mon): $43.7B, about 17.2% of the season
- Buy Now, Pay Later: $20.2B, +11% (outpacing overall growth)
- Online share of all holiday retail: roughly 1 in 4 dollars
Discounts should look similar to last year, with a touch of softness in a few categories:
- Electronics: up to 28% off (vs. 30.1% last year)
- Toys: up to 27% off (vs. 28% last year)
Shoppers know the drill: wait for the right promo window, pounce, and use BNPL at checkout. It’s especially popular with younger buyers and those juggling tighter budgets — hence the acceleration versus overall growth.
The anchors
- Electronics: $57.5B
- Apparel: $47.6B
- Furniture: $31.1B
Fast-climbers (vs. average levels earlier this year):
Power tools (+1,060%), activity trackers (+1,055%), home security (+1,050%). Hot items range from Nintendo Switch 2 and iPhone 17 to Dyson Airwrap and buzzy Labubu toys.
Overall holiday spending (online + stores) looks more muted. One forecast pegs growth at around 4%, down from the 10-year 5.2% average, and a PwC survey suggests consumers plan to spend ~5% less overall (average $1,552), with Gen Z saying they’ll cut back 23%. In other words, e-commerce will likely outperform the wider season — but not by last year’s margin.
The risks to watch
- Tariffs and price stickiness: Could dampen impulse buying in tariff-sensitive categories.
- Confidence jitters: If sentiment dips further, shoppers may chase only the sharpest promotions.
- Promo fatigue: Discounts are competitive but not dramatically deeper; retailers must get timing and targeting right.
Expect earlier deal drops, tight inventory planning, aggressive mobile UX, and prominent BNPL and price-match messaging. Also: more AI-assisted gift guides, smarter search, and creator-led bundles on TikTok/Instagram to compress the path from inspiration to checkout.
Holiday e-commerce is still growing — just at a more measured pace. Shoppers will show up for value, do their homework with AI, and check out on their phones. Retailers that nail timing, trust, and total price will win the season, even without 2020-style fireworks.
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