ICE Bets Big on Polymarket, Lifting Its Stock

The parent of the New York Stock Exchange just made a $2 billion wager on the future of event-driven trading. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said it’s taking a $2 billion stake in prediction-market platform Polymarket, a deal that values the crypto-native operator at roughly $8 billion. ICE shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading on the news.

“There are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve and we are excited about where this investment can take us,” CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said.

Polymarket’s founder and CEO Shayne Coplan echoed the pitch, saying that combining ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer savvy will help “deliver world-class products for the modern investor.” The Wall Street Journal first reported the talks.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket lets users trade on yes-or-no outcomes across politics, sports, and current events — turning public curiosity into priced odds. After resolving regulatory issues that kept US users off the platform, the company says it’s been greenlit to launch domestically and has acquired a US-licensed exchange and clearinghouse to smooth its re-entry. Earlier this year it also drew investment from 1789 Capital, backed by Donald Trump Jr.

The timing looks canny. Prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream, with rival Kalshi seeing a jump in activity after rolling out sports-related contracts. Piper Sandler thinks industry revenue could reach $8 billion by 2030 as these platforms nibble at the edges of sports betting and traditional derivatives.

For ICE, which has a history of building and buying market infrastructure, Polymarket offers both data and distribution upside: a fast-growing venue producing rich, real-time signals on what investors think happens next — and a new product set to offer institutions and retail traders alike. If prediction markets keep scaling, this is less a side bet and more a new lane in the exchange business.

With input from the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Reuters, Investor’s Business Daily, and the Financial Times.