Gold Blasts Past $4,100 as Trade Jitters Meet Rate-Cut Fever

Gold just punched through another ceiling. Spot prices ripped to a record $4,116.77 an ounce on Monday before cooling to around $4,106 in afternoon New York trade, while December futures settled up 3.3% at $4,133. Silver rode shotgun, tagging an all-time high at $52.12 and hovering near $51.80 into the close.

What’s fueling the surge is a two-stroke engine: rising nerves over a fresh US–China trade flare-up and growing conviction the Fed will cut rates again this fall and into year-end. With traders pricing a near-certain 25 bps trim in October and another in December, the appeal of a non-yielding haven only grows. Layer on steady central-bank buying and robust ETF inflows, and you’ve got a backdrop where every geopolitical headline finds a willing bid.

This run has been relentless — gold is up roughly 56% in 2025 after finally cracking the $4,000 milestone last week. Wall Street is scrambling to keep up: Bank of America lifted its 2026 target to $5,000 an ounce and put silver at $65, while other houses warn that even powerful trends need breathers. On the tape, momentum is hot enough to sizzle — RSI readings sit in “overbought” territory for both metals — so a pullback wouldn’t shock anyone who’s watched this climb.

Under the hood, the drivers haven’t changed. Trade tension headlines keep coming, the dollar’s path looks shakier when policy turns easier, and inflation uncertainty nags even as growth cools. Silver adds its own accelerant: tight spot supply and heavy industrial demand — from solar gear to chipmaking — make every incremental dollar of investment feel like a lever.

Bottom line: between policy easing odds and a choppy geopolitical map, gold’s “hedge-everything” narrative is back at full volume. Whether the next stop is consolidation or another breakout likely depends less on spreadsheets than on the next tweet, tariff threat, or dovish Fed hint. For now, the path of least resistance is still pointed up — and the tape is listening.

With input from Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and CNBC.