Gold Pops as Rate-Cut Bets Grow and Jitters Linger Ahead of US–China Talks

Bloomberg and Reuters contributed to this report.

Gold shook off Friday’s wobble and ripped higher Monday, powered by bets on more Fed easing and a fresh bout of safe-haven buying as traders look toward US–China trade talks and a pivotal inflation print later this week. By early afternoon New York time, spot was up about 2.3% at $4,346.39 an ounce, while December futures settled 3.5% higher at $4,359.40. That rebound comes just days after bullion notched an all-time high of $4,378.69, then sank 1.8% when comments from President Donald Trump briefly cooled trade tensions.

The macro backdrop is doing most of the heavy lifting. With Washington’s shutdown dragging into day 20 and the data calendar scrambled, investors are leaning even harder on the idea that the Fed cuts again next week — and probably in December, too. Fed funds futures now imply near-certainty for a quarter-point move, and in a low-rate world a non-yielding asset like gold looks better by the hour. Friday’s delayed consumer price index is the next big catalyst; a cooler print would validate the rally, while a surprise pop risks a pause.

Under the hood, the narrative is broadening beyond rates. Geopolitics, trade friction and a general shortage of trust in the system are all feeding demand for assets you can hold without a counterparty. Jeffrey Christian at CPM Group says political and economic concerns are pushing prices higher after the sharp end-week selloff, and he wouldn’t be surprised to see $4,500 “soon.” If the world stays this volatile, he even floats $5,000 sometime next year.

It’s not just gold catching a bid. Silver inched up to $52.17 after getting thumped 4.4% on Friday, a comedown from its own record at $54.47 earlier that day. Platinum firmed to $1,640.90 and palladium to $1,496.59. Still, the focus is squarely on bullion, where every thread seems to tie back to the same knot: a market bracing for rate cuts, navigating a 20-day government shutdown, and waiting to see whether US–China talks ease tensions or add fresh fuel to a trade fire that’s already singed risk appetite.

With CPI due Friday and central-bank odds locked in, gold has the tailwinds it needs. If the data cooperate and the headlines stay jumpy, the path of least resistance still points higher.