Stuck in Place: US Home Turnover Hits a Three-Decade Low

The original story by Alex Veiga for AP.

Americans aren’t moving like they used to. From January through September, only about 28 out of every 1,000 homes changed hands — a turnover rate Redfin says is the lowest since at least the 1990s. It’s a tidy way to capture a sluggish housing market: not just fewer sales, but owners staying put far longer.

Economists see warning lights beyond the property market. Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather calls the freeze “not healthy for the economy,” noting the turnover rate is roughly 30% below the 2012–2022 average. Moves that typically power churn — new jobs, growing families, trading up — just aren’t happening as often. A softer labor backdrop isn’t helping, with August payrolls up a scant 22,000 and a private-sector survey showing a 32,000 job loss in September. If people aren’t switching jobs, they’re less likely to switch houses.

Then there’s the mortgage handcuffs. Millions who bought or refinanced in 2020–2021 are sitting on rock-bottom rates, and swapping them for today’s still-elevated borrowing costs makes little financial sense. That “rate lock” has starved the market of listings since 2022, the year rising rates ended the pandemic buying frenzy and pushed existing-home sales to their weakest level in nearly 30 years.

There are glimmers. Mortgage rates have eased to the lowest in more than a year, and sales momentum ticked up to the fastest pace since February. But affordability remains the brick wall: after six years of surging values, the median price of an existing home is up 53%, and even small rate relief doesn’t bridge the gap for many buyers.

Bottom line: a low-hire, low-fire job market and high housing costs are keeping Americans rooted. Until affordability improves — or mobility picks up — expect the “for sale” signs to stay scarce and the moving boxes to gather dust.