With the Data Lights off, Is the Job Market Dimming? What We Actually Know

With input from NPR, CNBC, Reuters, Business Insider.

The record shutdown has blindsided the usual jobs scoreboard. With BLS statisticians furloughed for a second month, there’s no official payrolls report, no unemployment rate update—just a messy mix of private indicators and anecdotes. Here’s the clearest picture we can piece together.

No September or October jobs reports from BLS; survey collection was halted. FAA says it’ll cut air traffic 10% at many busy airports — another shutdown ripple that could hit hiring in travel and services. Fed officials say they’re not flying blind, but the runway is foggy. As Gov. Lisa Cook put it: the longer this lasts, the more data get disrupted.

The signals are mixed, but not disastrous.

Hiring:

• ADP: Private employers added ~42,000 jobs in October — better than recent months, but still weak. Gains skewed to large firms.

• LinkedIn: Hiring fell 0.8% m/m; little momentum.

• Homebase/Gusto (small biz): Fewer net hires, softer quits; small firms are conservative and feeling high borrowing costs.

Firing:

• Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153,074 announced cuts in October — the worst October in 22 years. Tech and warehousing led.

• State jobless claims: Broadly stable; Goldman pegs last week at ~228,000, still historically low.

Openings & labor demand:

• Indeed: Job postings slipped to the lowest since Feb 2021.

• ISM: Employment components below 50 (contraction) in manufacturing (46.0) and soft in services (48.2).

Pay & wallets:

• Bank of America: Payroll deposits up 0.5% y/y; higher earners seeing faster wage gains than middle and lower earners. Unemployment benefits usage up from a year ago, but cooling vs. September.

What we knew before the blackout

• August (last official read): +22,000 jobs; unemployment 4.3% — low historically, but edging up.

• “Two-speed” signs: jobless rates jumped more for young workers (20–24: 9.2%) and Black workers (7.5%) over the summer.

How workers feel

• Glassdoor: Employee confidence slipped; fewer people turning down offers — classic sign of weaker worker leverage.

• Layoff headlines (Amazon, UPS and others) are denting sentiment even as broad layoffs haven’t spiked.

Short answer: cooler, not collapsing. Multiple trackers show slower hiring, more announced layoffs, and tighter small-business conditions, but initial claims remain tame and big, sudden job losses aren’t showing up broadly. Think “low-hiring, low-firing” limbo.

Economists’ blended estimate for October: –60,000 payrolls, 4.5% unemployment — consistent with a soft patch, not a steep slide.

What to watch next

• Shutdown endgame: Restores data flow and reduces travel-service drag.

• Rate cuts: Markets still see odds for a December move; easier credit could lift small-biz hiring.

• Sector splits: Health care and construction still hiring; tech/media/information remain the weak spot.

Until Washington turns the data back on, all signs point to a labor market that’s losing steam but still standing — with the pain landing first on small businesses, younger workers, and sectors coming off pandemic over-hiring.