Nvidia’s Big Earnings Showdown Set to Steal the Spotlight From This Week’s Data

Reuters and CNBC contributed to this report.

Stock futures were treading water Sunday night after a wild week on Wall Street, with investors clearly bracing for one thing: Nvidia’s earnings.

Dow Jones futures inched higher, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures ticked up modestly after a choppy few days that saw the Dow hit a record high even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly slipped below their 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq Composite ended last week down about 0.5%, dragged lower by big names like Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom and Meta, while the Dow and S&P 500 managed only slim gains after a sharp sell-off on Thursday.

“We had expected the first couple weeks of November to be choppy, and it certainly looks like we are in the midst of the chop,” said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat.

Some of the usual “wall of worry” items — such as government shutdown risks and the New York City mayoral race — have faded, he noted, but others linger. Even so, Lee still expects this volatility to resolve in a rally that could send the S&P 500 toward 7,000 over time.

For now, though, the market’s focus is narrow: Nvidia.

The main event this week is Nvidia’s earnings report after the close on Wednesday. The chipmaker has become the poster child of the artificial intelligence boom, and its results are widely seen as a fresh test of whether the AI trade still has legs after recent turbulence in high-flying AI names.

Analysts are looking for roughly 54% year-on-year growth in fiscal third-quarter earnings per share, and estimates for future revenue have been creeping higher. That optimism leaves Nvidia with a high bar to clear — and plenty of potential to move the broader market if it surprises either way.

Nvidia’s numbers will also arrive in the middle of a busy stretch for retail and tech earnings. A dozen S&P 500 companies report this week, including:

• Home Depot (Tuesday);
• Target, Lowe’s, Williams-Sonoma, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, Nvidia (all Wednesday);
• Walmart, Jacobs Solutions, Ross Stores, Intuit, Copart (Thursday).

Those results should offer a closer look at consumer strength, corporate spending and the state of the broader AI and cloud ecosystem.

On the macro side, US economic data starts flowing again Monday with delayed construction spending figures for August, followed by the November Empire State manufacturing survey. September jobs data is due Thursday, but the freshest readings on inflation and wages won’t land until next month.

In the meantime, lingering questions about the quality of recent economic data and a string of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have taken some air out of expectations for a December rate cut. Investors will be listening closely to speeches this week from Fed officials Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari and Waller for any hints on the timing of policy easing.

North of the border, Canada’s inflation report is also on the docket Monday and could sway expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next move — and by extension, global bond markets.

Over in Asia, markets started the week on a cautious note. The US dollar firmed slightly, while a deepening diplomatic rift between China and Japan weighed on Japanese equities.

Chinese authorities warned citizens about travel to Japan, sparking sharp sell-offs in several Japan-exposed consumer names. Shares of Muji parent Ryohin Keikaku, department store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi, and cosmetics group Shiseido all dropped around 10%.

The spat follows comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who told lawmakers that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and potentially trigger a military response. Japanese media reported that a senior diplomat will head to China on Monday to try to cool tensions.

At the same time, reports of a roughly $110 billion government stimulus package in Japan added pressure on Japanese government bonds, as investors weighed the prospect of more issuance.

All told, it’s setting up to be one of those weeks where the calendar looks busy, but just one name looms over everything else.

Key things to watch on Monday and beyond:

• Nvidia’s Wednesday earnings – the big AI sentiment check;
• Retail heavyweights’ results – Walmart, Home Depot, Target and others on consumer health;
• US construction spending and jobs data – delayed numbers finally hitting the tape;
• Canada inflation – a read on broader price pressures;
• Fed speakers – any hints on whether a December cut is truly off the table.

Economic data, central bank chatter and geopolitical headlines will all matter. But unless something truly shocking hits, it’s Nvidia’s report that’s most likely to set the tone for markets in the days ahead.