ICC to rule on possible Duterte release as victims warn against leniency

The International Criminal Court’s appeals chamber is set to decide on Friday whether former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte should be released from detention while facing crimes against humanity charges tied to his bloody “war on drugs”.

The ruling could open the door to provisional freedom for the 79-year-old ex-leader, but human rights groups and families of victims are pushing hard against any such move, arguing it would undermine justice and endanger witnesses.

Duterte’s lawyers are challenging an October decision that kept him behind bars after judges concluded he was likely to refuse to return for trial and could use his influence to intimidate or harm witnesses. Prosecutors allege that Duterte directed and authorised “violent acts including murder to be committed against alleged criminals, including alleged drug dealers and users” during his time as Davao mayor and later as president from 2016 to 2022.

Official police figures place the death toll above 6,000. Human rights organisations say it could be as high as 30,000.

His legal team argues that Duterte is “infirm and debilitated” and that it would be “cruel” to keep him detained, claiming his “cognitive faculties” have deteriorated to the point that he cannot meaningfully participate in his defence. Yet relatives who visited him in The Hague said he appeared “well” and “very engaged”, undercutting those assertions.

Adding to the political tension, Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, previously floated the idea that his supporters should march on the detention centre and stage a “jailbreak”.

If released, Duterte would not return to the Philippines but would instead be placed under the supervision of another ICC member state while proceedings continue.

In Manila, leading human rights lawyer Kristina Conti voiced near certainty the appeal would fail.

“There’s a strong evidence why he [Duterte] should stay in jail,” she said. “It is important to point out that the defence is not contesting the reasonable basis that he committed crimes against humanity. The basis of the request [is] physical and mental health.”

She added: “Because there’s a strong and factual legal findings in the pre-trial chamber, there’s no reason why it should reverse its ruling in September and grant him interim release.”

Duterte has been held at The Hague for over eight months, following his arrest in March. The ICC case stems from alleged crimes committed between 2011 and 2019, despite efforts by Duterte’s government to dodge accountability by withdrawing the Philippines from the court.