Oil Climbs as OPEC+ Freezes Output Plans and Venezuela Tensions Rattle Markets

Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters contributed to this report.

Oil prices ticked higher to kick off the week after OPEC+ reaffirmed it’s keeping production hikes on pause — and as geopolitical jitters from Washington to Caracas added fresh uncertainty to global supply.

By early Monday, Brent crude was trading just above $63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $60, both up roughly 1%. The gains came after the producer alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, confirmed it will hold off on increasing output through the first quarter of 2026, sticking to a slowdown originally announced last month.

OPEC+ said the move reflects soft seasonal demand and persistent concerns about a looming supply glut. They also stressed they’re keeping “full flexibility” — meaning they can extend the pause or ramp production back down if the market worsens.

Oil’s had a rough run. November marked the fourth straight month of losses, the longest slump since 2023. Analysts have warned for weeks that global supply could soon outweigh demand:

• The International Energy Agency is projecting a record surplus in 2026.
• JPMorgan thinks crude could sink toward $50 a barrel next year.

But every time prices sag too far, geopolitics seem to shove them back up.

This weekend, President Donald Trump jolted traders by warning airlines to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed, citing escalating tensions with the Maduro government. On Sunday he softened the statement — saying, “Don’t read anything into it” — but by then the market was already spooked.

Venezuela remains a meaningful crude exporter, and anything hinting at sanctions, airspace restrictions, or military action tends to widen eyes (and push prices higher). ING analysts noted the market is clearly reacting to the threat of disrupted Venezuelan supply.

Europe’s energy picture grew even murkier as Ukraine ramped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Over the weekend, Ukrainian officials said they struck:

• A Russian oil refinery,
• The Beriev aircraft plant, and
• Two tankers en route to pick up sanctioned Russian crude.

Those hits added to anxiety already swirling around stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Earlier optimism that a deal might soon open floodgates of sanctioned Russian oil has now flipped into fresh uncertainty.

And just to pile on: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which moves about 1% of the world’s crude, temporarily halted operations after a Ukrainian drone damaged a mooring at the Novorossiysk terminal on the Black Sea. (Chevron later said loadings resumed, but jitters remain.)

Friday’s massive outage on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange — which froze trading for hours as the US celebrated Thanksgiving — created pent-up volatility. When markets reopened in Asia on Monday, crude saw unusually strong trading volume as traders caught up.

OPEC+ is holding firm on output limits, the global surplus narrative is still alive, and geopolitical hotspots — Venezuela, Russia, Ukraine — are keeping energy markets on edge.

For now, that mix is pushing prices upward. But with supply forecasts swelling and diplomacy wobbly, the only sure thing is more volatility ahead.