Supreme Court clears Texas to use GOP-leaning map for 2026 midterms

The US Supreme Court has given Texas the green light to move ahead with a congressional map widely expected to boost Republican gains in the 2026 midterm elections, a ruling split neatly along ideological lines.

All six conservative justices backed Texas’s emergency appeal, overturning a lower court decision that blocked the map on grounds of racial gerrymandering. The three liberal justices dissented.

In a short unsigned order, the court said Texas is likely to win “on the merits of its claims” and leaned on long-standing precedent that federal courts should avoid changing election rules close to voting. Shifting the boundaries now, the majority argued, risked “irreparable harm” as campaigns for 2026 are already forming.

The new map, championed by Texas Republicans and pushed personally by President Donald Trump during its drafting phase, could net the GOP up to five additional House seats. Texas currently holds 38 seats in Congress, 25 of them Republican, and remains one of the party’s most reliable power bases.

Democrats had hoped the courts would block the map after a lower panel ruled it was unconstitutionally drawn along racial lines. But after Thursday’s ruling, the map is almost certain to be used next year.

And Texas is only the opening salvo. Republicans and Democrats nationwide are racing to redraw lines ahead of 2026, triggering what analysts are calling a redistricting arms race.

Missouri and North Carolina have already approved GOP-friendly maps. California, in turn, passed a ballot measure backed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom to suspend its independent commission and pursue a partisan redraw of its own, a direct attempt to offset GOP gains elsewhere.

With the House narrowly split, Republicans hold 220 of 435 seats, even a handful of new districts could tilt control of Congress. Gallup polling this week also showed Trump’s approval dropping to 36 percent, fuelling Democratic hope for a midterm advantage.