US President Donald Trump says he has made his decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve next, and while he hasn’t named the nominee publicly, the betting markets hardly need suspense. Kevin Hassett, currently head of the National Economic Council and a longtime Trump economics ally, is viewed as the overwhelming frontrunner.
Prediction platform Kalshi puts Hassett’s odds at 86 percent, compared with 6 percent for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and 4 percent for current board member Michelle Bowman.
The Fed isn’t just another agency, it’s the steering wheel of the world’s largest economy. It sets US interest rates, regulates banks and acts as financial shock absorber when markets wobble. When the Fed moves, global markets feel it.
With the central bank expected to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points next week, bringing the benchmark to a 3.75–4 percent range, the incoming chair will inherit a system delicately balancing slowing inflation, borrowing costs and the risk of recession.
Lower rates make borrowing cheaper for mortgages, cars and business lending, boosting growth. Higher rates cool inflation. The debate is where the balance lies, and Trump wants cuts fast.
Hassett is not just an economist, he’s a familiar name inside Trumpworld. He served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in Trump’s first term, returned briefly during the pandemic, and now directs the National Economic Council.
His public positioning has been clear: faster rate cuts, sooner.
In a recent Fox interview, he said that he would be “cutting rates right now” if he were Fed chair, aligning closely with Trump’s push to get the benchmark down as far as 1 percent.
Jerome Powell has resisted that pressure, a factor fueling Trump’s search for new leadership.
Hassett has deep roots in conservative economic circles: tax policy at AEI, advisory roles for McCain, Bush and Romney.
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