Confluent Pops Nearly 30% After IBM Unveils $11 Billion AI-Powered Deal

Bloomberg, CNBC, Axios, and the Financial Times contributed to this report.

Confluent shares rocketed Monday after IBM announced it’s buying the data-streaming company in an all-cash deal valued at $11 billion, the latest big swing in IBM’s push deeper into artificial intelligence.

IBM will pay $31 per share in cash for all of Confluent’s outstanding common stock, a roughly 34% premium to Confluent’s $23.14 closing price on Friday. The stock jumped close to 29% on the news, while IBM edged higher.

“Data, and especially real-time data, is incredibly important to how an enterprise functions,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said on CNBC. “Nobody can live with month-old data, or even week-old data, and Confluent has the most capable technology to unlock the real-time value of data.”

Krishna said Confluent will sit inside IBM’s software unit and help build what he calls a “smart data platform” purpose-built for AI, giving companies one control layer to feed data into AI agents while maintaining tight security and governance.

Confluent, based in California, specializes in real-time data streaming — connecting, processing and governing data as it’s generated, rather than in slow batches. It has more than 6,500 customers across industries and integrates with major cloud and AI players like Anthropic, AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and Snowflake.

The acquisition strengthens a strategy Krishna has been executing for years: build IBM’s future around AI, hybrid cloud, and open-source software. It follows:

• The $6.4 billion purchase of HashiCorp earlier this year;
• IBM’s $4.6 billion Apptio deal in 2023;
• The landmark Red Hat acquisition back in 2019.

Analysts at Wedbush called the Confluent move a “strong” deal that plugs a key gap in IBM’s hybrid cloud and AI ecosystem by adding more powerful data-processing tools and helping break down data silos.

“We loudly applaud this deal as Arvind takes IBM further into the AI revolution,” Wedbush wrote, keeping an overweight rating on IBM and a $325 price target.

Real-time data is the fuel modern AI systems increasingly demand. Confluent’s platform gives companies continuous streams of operational data — everything from payments and inventory to fraud alerts and customer behavior — that AI tools can react to in the moment.

IBM expects global data volumes to more than double by 2028, with AI agents accelerating in 2026 and beyond. Krishna said having a single layer to manage and deliver that data securely to AI systems is “going to unlock a lot.”

The transaction is expected to close by mid-2026, pending approvals. IBM says the deal should boost profits within a year of closing and improve free cash flow within two years.

For Confluent, it’s a new chapter. The company went public in 2021 at $36 a share and once traded above $90 during the early cloud-and-AI boom, but has struggled more recently amid fierce competition and a slowdown in cloud spending. IBM’s all-cash offer gives it a stable home — and gives IBM another big piece in its AI and data puzzle.