Jimmy Lai verdict looms as Hong Kong security trial nears its end

Hong Kong’s High Court is set to deliver a long-awaited verdict next week in the national security case against jailed pro-democracy campaigner and media tycoon Jimmy Lai, bringing one of the territory’s most consequential trials closer to its conclusion.

According to a court diary notice seen on Friday, a three-judge panel will hand down its decision at a hearing beginning at 10am local time (02:00 GMT) on Monday. The ruling follows a marathon trial that has come to symbolise Hong Kong’s political and legal transformation since the 2019 protests.

Lai, 78, is the founder of the now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily and is charged with colluding with foreign forces under Hong Kong’s national security law, imposed by Beijing in 2020. He has pleaded not guilty to two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces, as well as a third charge of sedition under a colonial-era law.

Prosecutors accuse Lai of using Apple Daily to conspire with former executives and activists to publish what they describe as seditious content between April 2019 and June 2021. They also allege he worked with figures including paralegal Chan Tsz-wah and activist Andy Li to encourage foreign governments, including the United States, Britain and Japan, to impose sanctions and other hostile measures against Hong Kong and China.

Authorities say Lai used more than 150 critical opinion pieces published in the paper to stoke hatred against Beijing and the Hong Kong government. If convicted, he faces a possible life sentence.

Lai has been detained since December 2020 and has spent more than 1,800 days in solitary confinement. His family says they fear for his health, noting that he suffers from diabetes, high blood pressure and heart palpitations that require medication.

In August, the court postponed closing arguments in the 156-day trial, which began in December 2023, citing a “medical issue” related to Lai’s heart. Authorities insist he has received appropriate medical care while in custody.

The case has drawn intense international scrutiny, with critics describing it as the most high-profile and politically charged application of the national security law to date. Beijing and the Hong Kong government reject that characterisation, saying Lai is receiving a fair trial and that the courts must be allowed to do their work.

Since the territory’s handover from Britain to China in 1997, Hong Kong has officially operated under a “one country, two systems” framework, retaining a common-law legal system and greater civil liberties than mainland China. That arrangement, however, has been steadily eroded, particularly after the mass pro-democracy protests of 2019-20 and the subsequent crackdown on dissent.

The national security law criminalised secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces, carrying heavy penalties and granting authorities sweeping powers. Lai’s prosecution has become a litmus test for how far Hong Kong’s judicial independence now extends.

Lai’s case has also become a geopolitical talking point. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to intervene on his behalf, saying in August he would do “everything I can to save him”.

“His name has already entered the circle of things that we’re talking about, and we’ll see what we can do,” Trump told Fox News Radio at the time.

Trump has reportedly raised Lai’s situation directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, underscoring how a single court verdict in Hong Kong now reverberates far beyond the city’s borders.