Trump Talks Big on Venezuela’s Oil — Wyoming Producers Aren’t Losing Sleep Yet

The original story by Caitlin Tan for Wyoming Public Radio.

President Donald Trump is talking up a future where the US plays a dominant role in Venezuela’s oil industry. But in Wyoming — one of the country’s top oil-producing states — industry insiders say that vision is a long way from becoming reality.

Pete Obermueller, president of the Petroleum Association of Wyoming, says the idea of Venezuela quickly ramping up oil production isn’t realistic, given the country’s current state of disrepair.

“I can’t really overstate how bad the situation is in Venezuela with respect to infrastructure,” Obermueller said.

Venezuela was once an oil powerhouse in the 1990s and still holds some of the world’s richest reserves. But years of mismanagement, underinvestment and political turmoil have left the industry in rough shape — plagued by power outages, corroded pipelines, stolen equipment and widespread corruption, according to NPR.

That’s not exactly an attractive setup for oil companies used to operating in Wyoming.

“Before you can even talk about accessing oil reserves, Venezuela has a massive problem just building a reliable electricity grid,” Obermueller said. “That’s not the kind of environment Wyoming operators are used to.”

Another key difference: Wyoming’s oil industry is mostly local. More than 80% of oil and gas operators in the state are small or ‘mom-and-pop’ businesses, according to the Petroleum Association of Wyoming. Very few have the scale or appetite to take on risky, capital-intensive projects overseas.

Even major US oil companies haven’t shown much interest so far. NPR cited an analysis from Rystad Energy estimating it would take about $183 billion and a decade to meaningfully revive Venezuelan oil production.

Right now, Venezuela produces about 1 million barrels of oil a day. Obermueller says that might creep up to 1.5 million barrels — but even that wouldn’t shake the global market much.

“That’s just not enough to make a dent in the global commodity that is oil,” he said.

For comparison, Wyoming produces just under 300,000 barrels a day, while North Dakota pumps out around 1.2 million barrels daily.

In theory, yes — but only under very specific conditions.

If Venezuela somehow stabilized politically, rebuilt its infrastructure and attracted massive investment, it could add more oil to an already oversupplied global market. That could push prices even lower.

“If you assume oversupply is here forever and Venezuela adds significant production, then sure — prices stay down,” Obermueller said. “And that’s not good for Wyoming producers.”

Oil prices are already hovering around $60 a barrel, well below their peak of $114 in May 2022. While cheap gas is nice for drivers, it’s tough on Wyoming’s economy, which relies heavily on energy revenues.

“I filled up this morning for about $2.10 — that’s lovely,” Obermueller said. “But it’s not great for our economy or for Wyoming’s tax revenue.”

In 2023, oil and gas contributed about $2.42 billion to Wyoming’s state and local governments, funding schools, infrastructure and the state’s savings accounts.

Obermueller says a healthier balance would put oil prices closer to $75 to $80 a barrel — high enough to encourage production without crushing consumers.

For now, Obermueller isn’t too concerned about Venezuela undercutting Wyoming’s oil industry anytime soon.

“Anybody who thinks they know exactly what’s going to happen after Nicolás Maduro is gone is guessing at best,” he said.

Trump recently met with top oil executives, hoping to drum up $100 billion or more in investment to revive Venezuelan production. So far, no companies have made firm commitments.

Until oil prices rise and Venezuela solves its massive infrastructure problems, Wyoming producers are focused on what they know best — drilling at home.