Paramount’s big bet: European regulators won’t bless WBD-Netflix deal – here’s how it could unfold

CNBC, Reuters, and Bloomberg contributed to this report.

Paramount Global is rolling the dice – hoping that European antitrust regulators will throw a wrench into the proposed mega-deal between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Netflix. If that happens, Paramount sees a shot at disrupting the streaming industry’s biggest potential marriage, but it’s not a guaranteed winning hand.

Here’s the lowdown on what Paramount is doing, what regulators are thinking, and how this standoff could reshape the streaming wars.

Paramount has extended its hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery shares to Feb. 20, buying more time as it tries to stir regulatory doubts overseas. CNBC reports the company is essentially betting that European authorities won’t clear a combined WBD-Netflix tie-up, using that uncertainty to win over WBD shareholders.

The logic goes like this: if regulators in the European Union or the UK slap conditions on the deal – or outright block it – the attractiveness of the merger shrinks, and Paramount’s rival bid could look better to investors. Paramount is pushing hard, upping its offer and extending deadlines in a bid to put pressure on WBD’s board and shareholders.

European regulators have lately been tough on big tech and media mergers, especially when content and distribution power collide. A combined Warner-Netflix entity would be one of the largest streaming forces the world has ever seen – and that kind of dominance could trigger competition concerns about pricing, market access, and fair play.

Officials in Brussels and London have already signaled they’ll take a hard look at any deal that could reduce choice or bend market rules in favor of big players. If EU regulators demand major concessions or block the deal altogether, it could throw a serious wrench into Netflix’s strategy – and hand Paramount an unexpected opening.

Here are the main scenarios analysts are watching:

1) European watchdogs block or hobble the deal

If regulators say “no thanks” or demand conditions that make the WBD-Netflix combination clunky or weak, Paramount gets a talking point. Its pitch to WBD shareholders – and the market – becomes: “Don’t sell to Netflix; our offer is cleaner and less risky.” That could tilt votes in Paramount’s favor.

2) Regulators sign off with conditions

Brussels or London could allow the tie-up but with strings attached – maybe forcing the new entity to divest certain rights, agree to price caps, or limit territorial streaming control. That would blunt the power of the merger and could give Paramount something to chew on at the negotiating table, but wouldn’t kill the deal outright.

3) Regulators bless the deal outright

This is the worst outcome for Paramount. A clean approval in Europe could strengthen the WBD-Netflix bid, making it harder for Paramount to argue that the merger is too risky or unattractive. Paramount’s extended tender offer might then look like a long shot.

Despite the uncertainty, Paramount looks committed to pressing its case – and the company’s leadership seems convinced that regulators will balk. Bloomberg notes that Paramount has been actively sweetening its offer and using all the leverage it can muster to gain traction with WBD shareholders.

But timing matters. Regulators move slowly, and the drama could stretch well into spring. Paramount’s Feb. 20 deadline extension signals it’s not willing to blink just yet – even if the clock is ticking.

This saga isn’t just about which media giant ends up on top. It’s a test of how global competition authorities handle consolidation in an era dominated by streaming and tech platforms. If EU regulators push back hard on a deal involving Netflix – one of the world’s most recognizable streaming brands – it could signal a broader shift in how big content deals are judged.

For now, Paramount is betting that European regulators won’t just wave it through – and that assumption could be the deciding factor in one of the most closely watched takeover battles in years.