ASML Rockets after Record €13.2bn order Haul – AI Boom and Memory Crunch Sending Demand Sky-High

With input from Reuters, CNBC, Market Watch, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, AP, and Al Jazeera.

ASML – the Dutch company that makes the insanely expensive machines that build the world’s most advanced chips – had a monster quarter, and the market noticed. Shares jumped roughly 7% after the firm reported a fourth-quarter bookings figure of €13.2 billion, far above expectations, and handed down upbeat sales guidance for 2026.

Bookings are the metric investors obsess over, and this one was a stunner: analysts had been looking for about €6.32 billion, yet ASML more than doubled that with a record quarter, CFO Roger Dassen said. Net sales in Q4 came in at €9.7 billion (tiny beat on consensus), and full-year 2025 sales hit €32.7 billion with net profit of €9.6 billion.

Management is bullish about 2026 too. ASML now expects total net sales between €34 billion and €39 billion next year – a midpoint that sits above Wall Street’s estimates – and forecasts quarterly net sales of €8.2bn–€8.9bn for the current period. The company flagged that EUV machine revenue will “significantly go up” as chipmakers crank out more advanced chips.

What’s behind the frenzy? Two big forces: AI-driven demand for advanced semiconductors and a memory-chip shortage that’s pushing makers to add capacity. Major foundries and memory firms are beefing up plans – Barclays, for example, expects SK Hynix to take a batch of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools in 2026 – and that translates directly into demand for ASML gear. ASML makes only about 50 EUV machines a year, and each one costs roughly €250 million, so a handful of orders moves the needle.

The company also unveiled a €12 billion share buyback program to be executed by the end of 2028, a big capital-return move that, along with the blowout orders, helped send the stock higher.

Not everything was sunshine. Net profit for the quarter of €2.84 billion missed the Street’s €3.01 billion forecast, and ASML said it will cut about 1,700 jobs – roughly 4% of its workforce – mainly in the Netherlands and some in the US Management said the layoffs are intended to streamline operations and restore speed and agility, not a sign that demand is fading. CEO Christophe Fouquet framed the cuts as “choosing to make these changes at a moment of strength.”

China remains a watchpoint. Export controls mean ASML can’t ship its most advanced systems there, and ASML warned that China’s share of revenue will likely fall – it expects China to be about 20% of sales in 2026, down from roughly 33% recently. That’s a drag, but one ASML appears ready to offset thanks to big-ticket orders from other customers chasing AI chips.

Investors and analysts have been debating whether AI spending is a sustainable boom or a bubble. For now, ASML’s results are the argument for the “sustainable” camp: customers appear to be moving from pilot projects to full-blown capacity expansion, especially as shortages push memory makers to invest. Management’s message was clear – medium-term demand looks stronger, and the company is betting on a 2026 that’s materially bigger than 2025.

Bottom line: ASML’s quarter is a neat snapshot of how the AI arms race is reshaping the chip industry – outrageously expensive equipment, explosive orders, and big strategic moves (buybacks and headcount trimming) all at once. If customers keep building out capacity, ASML stands to be one of the biggest direct beneficiaries. If they don’t, investors will be watching closely for signs the frenzy cools.