If the Chips Stop: How a Blockade Could Break US Tech

With input from the New York Times, Taiwan News, and Brookings.

Federal briefings have been blunt: a choke on the island’s chip supply would slam American tech and the wider economy. Silicon Valley execs heard that message for years — and mostly shrugged.

Reporter Tripp Mickle dug through documents, toured fabs and talked to more than 60 officials and industry insiders. Tripp Mickle His finding: business-as-usual beats contingency planning.

In secret meetings, national-security officials warned that if Taiwan were blockaded or invaded, the supply of high-end chips powering phones, laptops and AI data centers would collapse. Companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm were briefed — but most stayed focused on margins, not moving orders.

Two presidents tried to push change. Joseph R. Biden Jr. offered billions in subsidies; Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Still, relocation is slow: US chips run pricier and many plants won’t get built without guaranteed buyers.

The alarm is loud. Scott Bessent called the island a “single point of failure” at Davos. Industry studies warned a Taiwan cutoff would trigger the worst economic shock in decades. John Neuffer and others say progress is real but measured — count on years, not months.

Some big moves followed: TSMC, Nvidia, Intel and Samsung pledged US investment after pressure from officials like Gina Raimondo and Howard Lutnick — and visits from CEOs such as Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Lisa Su and Cristiano Amon.

Bottom line: the fixes so far matter, but they’re not a quick patch. Building resilient supply chains will take money, customers willing to pay more and time — and the industry will have to choose security over short-term profit before a crisis forces that hand.