Home Depot Beats Estimates as Sales Slip

CNBC, Home Depot, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Market Watch, and the Investor’s Business Daily contributed to this report.

Home Depot beat Wall Street’s fiscal-fourth-quarter revenue and earnings forecasts even as sales fell about 4% versus a year earlier. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.72 (vs. $2.54 expected) and revenue was $38.2 billion (vs. $38.12 billion expected). Shares jumped roughly 3% on the news.

The business is still being held back by a sluggish housing market — low turnover, high mortgage rates and consumer caution have put big renovation projects on pause. Comparable sales were barely positive (+0.4% overall, +0.3% in the US), while transactions dipped and average ticket rose, showing customers are buying fewer trips but spending a bit more when they do.

Richard McPhail said the company has been operating in a “frozen housing environment” and is watching a drop in consumer confidence. He also confirmed the company is evaluating the potential impact of the 15% across-the-board tariff that President Donald Trump floated after the Supreme Court struck down parts of prior import duties.

Pro customers (contractors, roofers, etc.) are still providing steadier demand, helped by Home Depot’s purchases of businesses like SRS Distribution. The company said more than half its merchandise comes from the US and that it’s diversified sourcing so no single foreign supplier accounts for over 10% of imports — a hedge against tariffs, McPhail said.

Management stuck with fiscal-2026 guidance: total sales growth ~2.5%–4.5% and adjusted EPS roughly flat to +4%. The board bumped the quarterly dividend by 3 cents to $2.33. To tighten the belt, the company also cut about 800 jobs late last year and rolled out a five-day return-to-office policy.

Home Depot’s results look like stabilizing steps — market share gains and a solid pro business — but the big fixes that drive outsized growth (a rebound in housing turnover, lower rates) haven’t arrived. Mortgage rates did ease to about 5.99% recently (per Mortgage News Daily), and spring selling season is ahead, so there’s cautious optimism. Still, tariff uncertainty and muted homeowner activity mean any real recovery could be gradual.

Beats for now, but the tape shows a company navigating a slow macro cycle. Home Depot can protect margins and lean on pro customers — yet broader demand won’t snap back without cheaper mortgages or a pickup in housing turnover, and a new 15% tariff could complicate pricing and supply plans.