Nvidia’s Earnings Are the Ultimate AI Mood Swing

AP and CNBC contributed to this report.

Nvidia is set to drop its quarterly results on Wednesday, and the whole market’s a little panicked. Investors are trying to figure out if the massive AI spending spree really pays off — or if this frothy rally was just hype.

Analysts expect revenue of about $66.1 billion for the November–January quarter — roughly a 68% jump year-over-year — and profit growth north of 70%, according to FactSet Research. That’s huge, but big beats have stopped being a guaranteed applause line: even after the last blowout, CEO Jensen Huang called demand “off the charts,” and the stock still slipped the next day.

Why this matters: the tech giants are dumping money into AI. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms have signaled roughly $650 billion in AI capex this year — and a big chunk is expected to buy Nvidia’s GPUs. If Nvidia shows demand is sticky, that validates a lot of the AI build-out. If not, markets could wobble fast.

The scale here is wild: Nvidia’s revenue jumped from about $27 billion a few years ago to north of $200 billion, and the company’s market value has swelled into the trillions — near $4.7 trillion today after briefly topping $5 trillion last year. Its stock now packs an outsized punch on indexes like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite.

What traders will hone in on: actual AI data-center sales, how big any upside is versus expectations, and the company’s guidance for the next quarter. Street models are looking for first-quarter revenue in the low $70 billions; if Nvidia hints it can tack another $100 billion onto annual sales, sentiment could flip hard. Some analysts even peg the stock toward $260, which would push market cap past $6 trillion — yes, really.

Bottom line: this isn’t just an earnings report. It’s a test of whether Nvidia can keep justifying its role as the backbone of the AI boom — and whether investors will keep buying the dream. Expect fireworks, and big swings either way.