Rheinmetall Says it’s “Prime” to arm the US, Predicts up to 45% Sales Jump in 2026

CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, the Financial Times, Market Watch, and Bloomberg contributed to this report.

Rheinmetall posted hefty growth last year — but missed the street’s hopes — and is now talking up an even bigger leap for 2026 as governments pour money into defense.

Here’s the short, real-world take: the company reported 2025 revenue of €9.94 billion and profits of €1.68 billion, shy of the €10.53 billion analysts polled by LSEG expected. Still, Rheinmetall says the world’s tense security picture means demand for its kit is only going one way: up.

The group has told investors it expects sales to jump 40–45% this year — roughly €14–14.5 billion — and to lift operating margins to about 19% (from ~18.5% in 2025). Management also said the order backlog hit a record €63.8 billion in 2025 and could more than double to about €135 billion as countries restock munitions and beef up air defenses.

CEO Armin Papperger framed it bluntly: the “tense security situation underpins the promising position of the Group,” and the company is in a “prime position to help the US replenish their missile stockpiles,” including supplying critical solid rocket motors.

Governments are lifting defense budgets after years of underinvestment, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have turbocharged procurement plans. Rheinmetall’s weapons, vehicles and ammo businesses are right in the sweet spot: in 2025 the Weapon & Ammunition unit did about €3.53 billion, while Vehicle Systems (tanks, trucks) posted €4.99 billion.

The group is slimming down non-core bits — planning to sell its civilian auto arm — and doubling down on naval and munition capabilities after buying a shipbuilder, moves management says will help meet surging demand.

Investors reacted nervously in early trading: shares fell after the results and guidance, even though the bulls argue the outlook is plausible. Some analysts called the forecast sensible but cautious — Jefferies described the numbers as “realistic but soft,” while others said markets may have overreacted to the near-term misses. Barclays had earlier warned that expectations are high and the stock is sensitive to any news.

Morningstar chimed in before the report that as budget approvals resumed across Europe, delayed programs would convert into contracts — supporting nominations and the elevated backlog. That’s the core thesis: if states keep signing contracts, the revenue should follow.

Rheinmetall has been a standout — its shares surged roughly 540% over three years as Europe rearmed — but gains have cooled recently and the stock is only modestly up year-to-date. That’s because investors are asking sensible questions: can production scale fast enough? Will political will (and budgets) hold? And how sticky is the demand if the geopolitical picture shifts?

There are supply-chain and execution risks, too. Turning a massive backlog into delivered revenue requires factories, skilled workers and secure suppliers — all of which can be constrained by bottlenecks or export rules.

Despite missing top-line estimates, Rheinmetall proposed raising the dividend to €11.50 per share from €8.10, a sign management is confident cash flow will remain strong even as it invests to expand capacity.

Rheinmetall looks like one of the defense names set to benefit if governments keep restocking weapons and missiles — especially the US, which the company says it can help supply. But the story isn’t risk-free: execution, scaling, and political shifts could all temper the boom. For now, the company is talking big numbers — and asking investors to bet that the recent spike in military spending is more than a flash in the pan.