Oil Climbs Past $100 as US-Iran Tensions Flare, Gold Loses its Shine

With input from Business Insider, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Axios.

Markets opened the week on edge – and it showed.

Oil prices pushed higher Monday after a weekend of escalating threats between the US and Iran, while gold, usually a go-to in times like this, slid hard and wiped out its gains for the year.

Brent crude climbed above $113 a barrel early in the day, with US benchmark crude hovering near $99. That’s a big jump from the roughly $70 levels seen before the conflict kicked off in late February. Prices bounced around a bit, but the direction is clear: up – and staying there.

The trigger? Fresh rhetoric from Donald Trump, who warned over the weekend that the US would start bombing Iran’s power plants if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran fired back, threatening strikes on US and Israeli infrastructure across the region.

That narrow shipping lane has become the pressure point. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through it, and with traffic disrupted, supply is tightening fast. Traders aren’t betting on a quick fix.

“Investors aren’t in the mood to wait this out,” one analyst noted, pointing to continued selling in stocks and commodities tied to growth.

The longer the conflict drags on, the more it feeds into inflation fears – and the higher the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

Back in the US, drivers are already feeling it. Gas prices are creeping toward $4 a gallon nationwide, adding to the pressure on households and complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

And then there’s gold.

After a huge run earlier this year, the metal has taken a sharp turn. Prices dropped to around $4,260 an ounce Monday morning – below where they started the year – after peaking above $5,500 in January. Last week alone, gold fell more than 10%.

It’s a surprising move on the surface. Geopolitical crises usually boost gold, not drag it down. But this time, rising bond yields, a stronger dollar, and fading hopes for rate cuts are pulling investors in the opposite direction.

There’s also a scramble for liquidity. In the early stages of big market shocks, traders often sell whatever they can – even safe havens – to cover losses elsewhere or move into assets that offer returns.

Meanwhile, the ripple effects of the conflict are spreading beyond oil. Key materials like fertilizers, helium, and pharmaceuticals are also facing disruptions, raising concerns about supply chains and production costs worldwide.

For now, markets are stuck watching the clock. Trump’s 48-hour deadline is ticking down, and what happens next could set the tone – not just for oil, but for the global economy.