Vance leads CPAC poll again as 2028 field begins to take shape

US Vice President JD Vance has once again topped the straw poll at the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), reinforcing his early position as a leading figure in the Republican Party’s post-Trump landscape.

The annual poll, conducted among attendees at the four-day gathering, asked roughly 1,600 participants who they would prefer as the party’s presidential nominee in 2028. Vance secured 53 percent of the vote, maintaining a clear lead, though with slightly less dominance than last year.

In 2025, shortly after President Donald Trump began his second term, Vance received 61 percent support in the same poll. This year’s result still places him firmly ahead, but also shows a more competitive field beginning to form.

The most notable shift came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who climbed to second place with 35 percent. The result marks a significant jump from his performance in the previous poll, where he tied for fourth with just 3 percent.

CPAC has long served as a snapshot of the Republican Party’s activist base rather than a precise predictor of future nominees. Its audience tends to skew toward the more ideologically committed wing of the party, which can amplify early momentum but does not always reflect broader voter sentiment.

Still, the poll offers a useful signal at a moment when the party is entering a transition phase. With less than eight months until the midterm elections, Republicans are focused on holding their congressional majorities. At the same time, attention is already turning to 2028, when Trump is set to leave office due to term limits.

Trump has hinted at seeking a third term, but US law bars presidents from serving more than two, leaving the question of succession open.

Vance and Rubio represent two distinct strands within the party. Vance, a former senator from Ohio, is closely aligned with the more isolationist wing of the MAGA movement. He has generally opposed deeper US involvement in foreign conflicts, though he has supported Trump’s decision to participate in strikes on Iran.

Rubio, by contrast, brings a longer political track record and is seen as more traditionally hawkish, particularly on issues like regime change. His rise in the poll suggests that a more conventional foreign policy approach still has a constituency within the party.

Both figures have undergone political shifts in recent years. Before joining Trump’s administration, Vance had criticised him as “unfit” for office, while Rubio, during the 2016 primary, described Trump as a “con artist” and an “embarrassment”.

The broader political backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. Trump’s approval ratings have declined in recent months, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll putting support at 36 percent, amid ongoing economic concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran.

That environment could shape how Republican voters weigh continuity versus change heading into the next presidential cycle.