Lithuanian Intelligence Claims Diplomatic Solution in Ukraine Unlikely

A diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine is unlikely within the next six months, an annual report released by Lithuania’s foreign intelligence service has alleged, as per Bloomberg.

The report claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains confident in his eventual victory, alleging Moscow possesses the resources to continue the war for years to come.

The Lithuanian intelligence assesses that the Kremlin maintains that peace is only achievable on its own terms. This assessment provides a critical perspective amid efforts by the administration of US President Donald Trump to expedite an end to the conflict. Recent actions, such as the US omitting Kyiv from talks with Russia in Riyadh and halting military aid and intelligence-sharing, have shaken the Western nations.

Furthermore, reports suggest that the Trump administration may be considering linking a proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for a rapid ceasefire.

Lithuania, which shares a border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, views its own security as intrinsically linked to the outcome of the war.

The intelligence report also suggests that a diplomatic resolution would not necessarily alleviate security concerns. Even if the conflict were to end or be frozen, Russia would allegedly revert to the pre-invasion status quo,

According to the report, Putin’s fundamental demands regarding NATO remain unchanged since before the war, including the withdrawal of alliance forces from eastern European states that joined after 1999. The Kremlin views relations with the West as existing in a “gray zone between war and peace.”