Pfizer Beats Estimates but Leans on a $10B Obesity Bet as Covid Sales Fade

CNBC, Market Watch, Business Wire, Reuters, Investor’s Business Daily, the Wall Street Journal contributed to this report.

Pfizer sailed past Wall Street’s Q4 expectations on Tuesday – but the picture wasn’t exactly fireworks. Revenue and adjusted earnings beat estimates, yet the drugmaker is still wrestling with falling Covid sales and pressure from older drugs losing exclusivity. Its answer: big bets on obesity drugs, cost cuts and a pipeline-heavy playbook.

Quick numbers: adjusted EPS came in at $0.66 (vs. $0.57 expected) and revenue was $17.56 billion (against $16.95 billion forecast). Revenue was roughly 1% lower year-over-year, largely because demand for the Covid vaccine and antiviral pill Paxlovid keeps shrinking. On a GAAP basis Pfizer showed a $1.65 billion net loss for the quarter due to certain charges; strip those out and the headline beat looks a lot healthier. Shares slipped in early trading.

The company stuck to the cautious 2026 guidance it laid out in December: $59.5 billion–$62.5 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $2.80–$3.00. That “modest” outlook still has investors wary – Pfizer says the hit includes about $1.5 billion from lower Covid sales and another $1.5 billion from products losing market exclusivity (think: more competition for blockbusters like Prevnar).

So where’s the upside? Pfizer is doubling down on longer-term bets. The biggest headline: its $10 billion Metsera takeover, which brought in PF’3944 – an ultra-long-acting GLP-1 injection Pfizer now says can be given monthly and still produce solid weight loss (up to 12.3% placebo-adjusted at week 28 in mid-stage data). Pfizer plans a massive obesity program next year – more than 20 trials, including 10 Phase 3 studies for PF’3944 – and is targeting 2028 for a potential approval.

Executives stressed pipeline and productivity. Pfizer aims to cut about $7.7 billion in costs by the end of 2027 through two separate initiatives, and management is pitching the Metsera deal as a way to fill the revenue gap left by fading Covid cash and aging franchises.

There were some bright spots in the quarter: demand for the RSV vaccine Abrysvo surprised to the upside (Pfizer reported $481 million in Q4 sales), and blood-thinner Eliquis remains a steady earner. But the company also warned that drug-pricing changes – including a landmark deal to give deeper Medicaid discounts and “most-favored-nation” pricing – will add “price and margin compression” baked into the 2026 guidance. Xeljanz was recently selected for Medicare negotiation rounds, with new prices set to take effect in 2028.

Analysts and investors will be watching two things closely: whether Pfizer’s obesity program can compete with entrenched players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, and whether the promised cost cuts plus new products can offset the revenue cliff from Covid and generic pressures. Management is betting on a long game; the market wants to see early evidence that that gamble pays off.

Bottom line: Pfizer beat the quarter, but the beat masks a transition. Covid cash is dwindling, older drugs face headwinds, and management is selling a future built on obesity R&D, hefty cost savings and bigger clinical programs. If those bets work, the company has a plan to replace what it’s losing – but it’s a multiyear fight.