Wegovy-Maker Warns of a Rough 2026 — Shares Dive as Price Cuts, Patents and Lilly Bite

The Guardian, the New York Times, Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, and the Financial Times contributed to this report.

Novo Nordisk shook the markets this week after warning that 2026 will be a down year: management now expects sales to drop as much as 5%–13% as a perfect storm of lower US prices, rising rivals and expiring patents eats into its once red-hot growth. The stock sold off hard — sliding roughly 17% in one session — wiping out the year’s gains and sending investors scrambling for cover.

Novo, the Danish company behind blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, blamed three main headaches. First, the Trump administration’s push to slash US list prices for GLP-1 weight-loss medicines has already cut the company’s realized prices substantially. Second, increasing competition — most notably from Eli Lilly and its tirzepatide shots and soon a pill — is stealing share. Third, patent cliffs are looming in some markets (India and China were called out), opening the door for generics and cheaper copycats.

CEO Maziar “Mike” Doustdar didn’t mince words: the hit from lower prices is “unprecedented” and “painful,” he said, but framed the price concessions as an investment to expand access and volume.

“We are seeing a volume response to lower prices,” he added, and warned investors the stock “goes down before it comes back up.”

Novo reported 2025 sales growth but warned that 2026 could see sales and profit fall 5%–13%. That’s a dramatic pivot for a company that became the poster child for the GLP-1 boom. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is playing a different tune: it expects 2026 sales to surge to $80bn–$83bn and its shares jumped on the contrasting guidance.

Lilly’s Mounjaro/Zepbound family has won praise for stronger efficacy in head-to-head studies, helping it gain share. Lilly also appears to have more durable patent protection in major markets, while Novo faces sooner expiries in some countries. That combination — better clinical positioning and longer exclusivity — has cemented investor confidence in Lilly even as Novo warns of pressure.

Novo isn’t out of tricks. It launched an oral Wegovy pill in the US this month and hit 50,000 weekly prescriptions within weeks — an impressive early uptake. The pill is priced in a wide range for cash payers (roughly $149–$299 a month depending on dose), and is being offered at steep discounts for insured patients through certain pharmacy channels. But the pill comes with quirks: it’s a peptide that requires strict dosing instructions (a tiny amount of water and a 30-minute wait before eating) that could blunt convenience versus rivals.

Lilly’s upcoming oral contender, orforglipron, is a small molecule that doesn’t carry the same dietary constraints and could appeal to patients who want easier dosing. Analysts say ease-of-use matters and could tilt long-term preference toward the more convenient product.

Novo has also taken hits from cheaper compounded versions of GLP-1 injections sold by some pharmacies, and the company has announced job cuts and management shakeups over the past year. The finance chief flagged that patent expiries in India and China will have a measurable but limited impact — roughly a 2% hit to group sales, he said — but the market is focusing on the bigger picture: lower prices combined with more competitors equals fewer dollars per prescription.

This is effectively a volume-for-price trade: governments and insurers want cheaper drugs (and some of that was negotiated in most-favored-nation deals), which should broaden access and push up prescriptions, but won’t prevent revenue declines in the near term. For Novo, the gamble is that lower prices will grow the market and pay off over time. For investors, the risk is whether that payoff shows up before competitors capture too much share.

Bottom line: Novo is bracing for a hangover after the GLP-1 party. The Wegovy pill’s strong start is something to hang onto, but patent expiries, cheaper alternatives and an agile Lilly are serious headwinds. If you’re holding the stock, expect volatility — and a lot of watching and waiting as pills, pricing and patent timelines settle out.