OPINION: Bitcoin steadies as dollar surges, raising questions about what kind of asset it really is

Bitcoin is no longer sliding. After a brutal sell-off over the weekend, the world’s most watched cryptocurrency has steadied in a band between roughly $75,000 and $80,000. In a market used to drama, the lack of further collapse is starting to look meaningful.

This pause comes at an awkward moment for risk assets. The US dollar has just logged its strongest two-day rally in nine months, tightening financial conditions and pulling attention back toward cash and short-duration trades. Historically, that kind of dollar strength tends to make life harder for Bitcoin, at least in the near term.

But according to Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, the key signal right now is not what Bitcoin failed to do, but what it refused to do.

“The dollar is flexing,” he said. “This always creates friction for Bitcoin in the short term. What matters is that prices are holding firm at elevated levels rather than unwinding.”

That distinction matters because the backdrop is anything but calm. Bitcoin has already shed a huge portion of its value from last year’s highs, at a time when, in theory, it should have been thriving. Geopolitical tension is rising, equity markets are jittery, volatility gauges are flashing warning signs, and gold has surged to record levels. Yet Bitcoin has not behaved like the “digital gold” its advocates often describe.

Instead, it has been swept into broader risk-off flows, losing around 20 percent this year and erasing the gains that followed Donald Trump’s re-election in late 2024. That divergence, gold climbing while Bitcoin fell, has fueled doubts about whether crypto really offers safe-haven protection when fear takes hold.

What makes the current moment different, Green argues, is how the market is absorbing pressure. The sell-off was sharp, but the follow-through has been muted.

“This behavior points to a market that is absorbing pressure, not buckling under it, which is, typically, how bases are built.”

The recent dollar surge has clear drivers. Shifting expectations around US monetary policy leadership and upcoming labor market data have reinforced the currency’s momentum. A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity and tends to cap Bitcoin’s upside by drawing capital toward safer, yield-bearing assets.

Still, Green stresses that this pattern is familiar and usually temporary.

“Dollar rallies have a history of interrupting Bitcoin’s momentum, not reversing it,” he explained. “They, typically, slow the move, they don’t cancel the destination.”

That confidence rests less on price action and more on structure. Bitcoin’s supply remains constrained and predictable, long-term holders continue to accumulate during periods of weakness, and the asset has moved well beyond its earlier dependence on retail enthusiasm. It is now routinely discussed in portfolio strategy meetings among asset managers, family offices and corporate treasuries.

“This is a very different market from earlier cycles,” said Green. “Bitcoin is no longer reliant on retail enthusiasm alone. Structural demand is broader, steadier and more disciplined.”

Ironically, the same macro uncertainty that has dented Bitcoin in recent months may also underpin its longer-term appeal. Rising sovereign debt, persistent currency debasement risks and geopolitical strain have not gone away, even if the dollar happens to be strong right now.

“Persistent currency debasement risks, rising sovereign debt burdens and geopolitical strain continue to strengthen the investment case for scarce digital assets,” Green said. “Those forces do not disappear because the dollar has a strong fortnight.”

From that perspective, Bitcoin’s current range looks less like exhaustion and more like preparation.

“Periods of consolidation near highs are historically constructive,” said Green. “They allow leverage to reset, conviction to strengthen and long-term capital to establish positions.”

His conclusion is blunt. Short-term macro pressure may dominate headlines, but it is unlikely to rewrite the bigger story.

“The dollar may be asserting itself today,” he said. “Bitcoin is, arguably, asserting something bigger. Scarcity, adoption and credibility are doing the work beneath the surface.”