J.D. Vance Overhauls his Vassal. Real Reasons behind Visit to the South Caucasus

Vice President J.D. Vance arrived in Yerevan yesterday as part of his extensive tour of the South Caucasus. Vance’s visit is important for understanding the goals and objectives of US policy in the region. It also provides insight into potential American geopolitical moves towards the post-Soviet states. Below is the conversation Wyoming Star had with Dr. Eleanor Markov, a non-resident fellow at the Atlas Eurasia Group.

Wyoming Star: What does Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit to Armenia reveal about the current balance between US influence and Armenia’s sovereignty in foreign policy decision-making?

Eleanor Markov: Vance’s visit to Armenia touches on a number of projects important for its future and, ultimately, demonstrates how little is now left of Yerevan’s sovereignty and autonomy as it rushes to agree to all US peace proposals.

Wyoming Star: How does the ongoing conflict between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church complicate Armenia’s relations with the United States, given Washington’s stated commitment to defending persecuted Christian communities?

Eleanor Markov: Undoubtedly, one of the most important issues to address – albeit behind the scenes – is almost a year-old conflict between the Armenian Apostolic Church and Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan. It should be noted that the Armenian authorities, contrary to the principle of separation of church and state and against the will of the overwhelming majority of Armenian citizens, have launched a campaign to discredit and prosecute bishops and priests of the Armenian Apostolic Church. The authorities seek to remove Catholicos Karekin II from the leadership of the Armenian Apostolic Church and replace him with a figurehead willing to serve the interests of Pashinyan’s political party.

The attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church is gaining worldwide recognition. It is worth noting that the Armenian diaspora has been most active, with numerous rallies and gatherings being recorded in Europe and the United States, demanding attention towards the arrests and prosecutions of the Church’s episcopate. Western Christian organizations and human rights activists, including those within the Council of Europe, have also expressed support for Etchmiadzin. The overall message is clear: Yerevan must abandon its pressure campaign on the Armenian Apostolic Church and release illegally held political prisoners.

Against this backdrop, Vance’s visit to Armenia creates a rather complex conflict for Pashinyan. On the one hand, he is attempting to undermine the Church’s organizational resources and moral authority among the people, while on the other, he cannot ignore the fact that Vance is a staunch right-wing conservative Republican who makes no secret of his commitment to defending Christians in all countries and places they are oppressed. Politically, Pashinyan’s continued anti-church policies undermine the authority of both him and his party – which is especially important in the run-up to parliamentary elections scheduled for this summer. The Armenian Prime Minister is thus falling into a peculiar electoral trap: continued pressure on the Armenian Apostolic Church leads to growing public discontent. However, Pashinyan is also unable to end this campaign overnight, as he is already losing standing among his own supporters. In any case, the constant appeal to Vance and the American side clearly demonstrates how low the level of real sovereignty of Armenia is and how much Pashinyan has “surrendered” the interests of his own country pursuing the chimera under the name of the “European path.”

Wyoming Star: Why has the TRIPP project, promoted as a peace and connectivity initiative, raised concerns about Armenia’s long-term economic control and territorial autonomy?

Eleanor Markov: The key foreign policy focus of Vance’s trip is the discussion of the TRIPP project – a transport route in southern Armenia, at the junction of mainland Azerbaijan, Iran, and Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The TRIPP project, sometimes referred to as the “Trump Route,” has become the official “peacekeeping mission” of the American president, who has “reconciled” Yerevan and Baku and ostensibly launched an economic project uniting the region.

Wyoming Star: What financial and social costs could Armenia face as a result of its obligations under the TRIPP framework, particularly in relation to public spending, taxation, and infrastructure maintenance?

Eleanor Markov: The problem with this project for Armenia is that even if the $5 billion in American private investments announced by Vance at his final press conference actually comes to the country, all this money and infrastructure will be located in an extraterritorial corridor. This corridor, running through Syunik and Zangezur, will effectively be cut off from Armenia for 49 years, and its use is highly questionable. Firstly, the TRIPP’s operational framework is unclear, and given the prevailing economic and military dominance of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the region, there is no doubt about the origin and destination of logistical cargo transshipment. Europeans are already interested in using the Zangezur corridor, seeking to create a seamless route to Central Asia – however, again, no specific investment details have been provided.

It is important to note that Armenia itself, having joined Trump’s “Board of Peace,” is required to contribute $1 billion to its fund. Armenia is also required to fulfill a number of obligations regarding the TRIPP route’s infrastructure support – experts claim that the costs over the coming years could reach up to $200 million, all of which Pashinyan and his government will extract from the country’s population by raising taxes, tariffs, and fees, increasing the burden on businesses.

Wyoming Star: How might deeper US involvement along Armenia’s southern border alter the country’s security environment, especially in the context of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran?

Eleanor Markov: The TRIPP project also has another, far more dangerous, potential. The United States is in a permanent conflict with Iran, and tensions around the Islamic Republic are constantly escalating. The US and its allies in the region are trying to destroy, or at least undermine, Tehran’s nuclear program. The emergence of a long stretch of territory effectively controlled by the US right on Iran’s border makes all of Armenia a legitimate target for Iranian retaliation should full-scale military action begin. It’s worth noting that, against this backdrop, Pashinyan and his government are openly pursuing a break with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and withdrawal from the organization – thus, Armenia is losing its only more or less reliable military umbrella. During today’s press conference, Vance spoke of transferring $11 million worth of unspecified “unmanned” technology to Armenia. It’s clear that in the event of a direct confrontation with a major land power, drones alone won’t be of any use.

Thus, by actively pushing for the TRIPP project, Pashinyan is playing a dangerous game, exposing Armenia to attacks from regional power centers without any visible economic benefit for Armenia itself.

Wyoming Star: What risks does US–Armenia nuclear cooperation pose, considering Armenia’s seismic geography, existing dependence on Russian nuclear infrastructure, and the experimental nature of proposed technologies?

Eleanor Markov: Washington’s plans for nuclear cooperation with Armenia could become another dangerous factor in destabilizing the South Caucasus. During Vance’s visit to Armenia, a framework agreement on the ‘peaceful atom’ was signed. As experts have previously noted, the current Armenian government is seeking to strike a deal with the United States on the construction of small modular nuclear power plants. Yerevan’s goal is clear: to free itself in the coming years from energy dependence on Russia, which operates the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP), supplying up to 40% of the republic’s electricity.

However, Pashinyan’s move has a number of serious and extremely dangerous consequences, which we will examine below.

First, it is important to point out that only Russia has well-established technologies and mechanisms for constructing small modular nuclear power plants – one such floating NPP is located, for example, in the Chukotka city of Pevek, providing energy to the entire city. By commencing construction in such a complex and seismically hazardous area as Armenia, with its mountainous Caucasus terrain, American companies will be using experimental practices that have not been widely tested. This all poses serious risks. The United States lacks extensive expertise in small nuclear power plant construction, and Armenia risks enormous risks of man-made disasters.

Secondly, a breakdown in nuclear relations with Russia will lead to the final closure of the existing nuclear power plant in Armenia, which is designed to operate until 2036, with all the ensuing consequences for the country’s economy and energy consumption.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the current package of agreements with the United States carries enormous risks for Armenia and will not bring the much-anticipated economic, military, and political benefits in the long term.