Trump Backs Paxton in Texas Senate Fight, Raising GOP Stakes

Donald Trump has endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican runoff for US Senate, putting the president directly into one of the party’s most closely watched and politically awkward primary fights.

In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump praised Paxton as “extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT” and drew a sharp contrast with incumbent Senator John Cornyn, whom he accused of being insufficiently supportive when “times were tough”.

Cornyn rejected that framing almost immediately.

“I have worked closely with President Trump through both of his Presidential terms and voted with him more than 99% of the time. He has consistently called me a friend in this race,” Cornyn wrote on X.

Paxton, meanwhile, embraced the endorsement.

“I am incredibly honored to have President Trump’s COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT,” Paxton said in a post on X.

The endorsement comes ahead of next week’s Republican runoff, after neither Paxton nor Cornyn secured a majority in the March primary. Under Texas rules, a candidate must win more than 50 percent to claim the nomination outright.

Trump had already signalled in March that he expected whichever candidate failed to win his backing to “DROP OUT OF THE RACE”. Cornyn has not done that, setting up a direct test of whether Trump’s endorsement can finish the job in a state where Republican loyalty to the president remains a central force.

Paxton has long been viewed as a strong contender for the nomination, but he brings plenty of baggage. The 63-year-old has never lost an election, despite years of controversy, including allegations of adultery, felony securities fraud charges and an impeachment effort that included members of his own party.

That history has made some Texas Republicans nervous about his prospects in the general election.

Recent polling shows a mixed picture. A survey from Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC aligned with Cornyn, showed the senator ahead by one point. A Lone Star Liberty PAC poll, backed by a pro-Paxton super PAC, showed Paxton ahead by 11 points. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll showed Paxton with a three-point edge.

The general election could be more difficult. Democrats are expected to rally behind James Talarico, who polling suggests could be competitive against either Republican. One poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found Talarico tied with Paxton, while Cornyn led him by one point.

Other surveys show Talarico ahead. A University of Texas poll had him leading Cornyn by seven points and Paxton by eight. Texas Public Opinion Research showed Talarico ahead by five points against Paxton and three against Cornyn.

Democrats have argued for years that Texas could eventually become competitive statewide, though they have not won statewide office there since 1994.

Trump’s endorsement could also carry consequences inside the Senate itself. Cornyn is a longtime member of the Republican conference, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune had reportedly pushed Trump to back him.

“Paxton, more likely than not, would have won without Trump’s endorsement. Now Trump has alienated the Republican majority in the Senate, Senator Thune, in particular, who’s been lobbying nonstop for Trump to endorse Cornyn,” Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University in Houston, Texas, told Al Jazeera.

“He’s also bought himself a John Cornyn who, if he loses on May 26th, has little reason to support the Trump administration during his final seven months in office.”

Some Republicans have openly questioned the choice. Senator Susan Collins of Maine referred to Paxton as “ethically challenged.”

The fight is about more than one Senate seat. Republicans currently hold a 53-seat Senate majority, with Democrats holding 45 seats and two independents caucusing with them. Texas is still structurally Republican, but a bruising primary, a controversial nominee and a competitive Democratic challenger could complicate what would normally be a safer race.