With Donald Trump’s unexpected return to the White House, India faces a wave of anxieties surrounding the potential impact of his trade policies and anti-immigrant rhetoric on bilateral relations, Al Jazeera reports.
Trump’s campaign promises, including hefty tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods, have alarmed Indian officials and experts.
“India-US relations could actually get strained if all these election promises that Trump made are implemented,” said Biswajit Dhar, a distinguished professor at the Council for Social Development, New Delhi. “If he goes through with them, this will be very, very bad news for India.”
The US is India’s largest export destination, and trade between the two countries has surged 92% in the last decade, reaching nearly $120 billion in 2022.
Despite concerns, some experts point to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal rapport with Trump as a potential buffer against trade friction. However, analysts at the London School of Economics predict a 0.03% GDP loss for India due to Trump’s “America First” agenda.
Beyond trade, Trump’s stance on immigration is a significant point of concern for India. The H-1B visa program, which allows skilled foreign professionals to work in the US, sees a majority of its beneficiaries from India. Under Trump’s previous term, the denial rate for H-1B petitions soared from 6% in 2015 to 30% in 2020.
While Trump’s second term will likely be different from the first, experts agree that his policies will inevitably pose challenges for India.
Despite these challenges, most experts believe the overall bilateral relationship between the US and India will remain strong, particularly due to shared concerns about China’s growing influence in the region.
However, tensions stemming from allegations of Indian agents attempting to assassinate a US-based Sikh separatist could pose a significant obstacle.
Ultimately, Modi’s personal relationship with Trump is seen as a valuable asset in navigating potential pitfalls.
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